Breeders' Cup Betting: Workforce unopposable in the Turf?

Breeders’ Cup Ante-Post Previews / Timeform / 30 October 2010 / Leave a Comment

Workforce wins the Arc

"A firm favourite at [2.44] for the mile-and-a-half contest, which his trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won a record four times (with Pilsudski in 1996, Kalanisi in 2000 and Conduit in 2008 and 2009), Workforce will be bidding to become the first Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner to land a Breeders' Cup race."

Timeform assesses the field for the Breeders' Cup Turf.

One race in which the Europeans can hold high hopes of upstaging the Americans is the Turf. It was in the Turf that Europe tasted success at the first Breeders' Cup meeting in 1984, with Alain de Royer Dupre's Lashkari. After Pebbles (trained by Clive Brittain) made it two from two in 1985, Europe has since been victorious a further thirteen times including High Chaparral's dead heat with Johar in 2003.

The significant point it would seem is in the title of the race itself, and the fact that it is run on turf, as is most racing in Europe, compared to America where the vast majority is staged on dirt.

At the time of writing the Europeans dominate the market on Betfair, or rather Workforce does. A firm favourite at [2.44] for the mile-and-a-half contest, which his trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won a record four times (with Pilsudski in 1996, Kalanisi in 2000 and Conduit in 2008 and 2009), Workforce will be bidding to become the first Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner to land a Breeders' Cup race.

Workforce romped away with the Epsom Derby (by seven lengths) in a record time, and his knockers after his King George flop have since had to eat their words as Workforce backed up his Derby rating in the Arc, where he beat Nakayama Festa a head, with Behkabad a further four lengths back in fourth. Jean-Claude Rouget's Behkabad is Workforce's closest rival in the betting at [4.5] after Arc fifth Fame And Glory was ruled out, and while it's true that Behkabad didn't have the best passage through, it's still hard to find a reason why he should turn the form around with Workforce, who is a fresh horse for the time of year, has by far the best form and has shown he handles both soft and good to firm ground.

Christophe Clement's Winchester [16.0] is the most prominent in the market of the home contingent, but his form in America after starting his career with Dermot Weld is around a stone shy of what Workforce has achieved this year, even if the first of his two wins at Belmont this year back in June does read well, beating stable-companion Gio Ponti (runner-up in last year's Classic and now set for a repeat bid) by half a length. Winchester also beat the pick of America's Turf 3-y-os in Paddy O'Prado [18.0] last time (Steve Hobby's Telling [42.0] was fifth), but the feeling remains that the Europeans will prove too strong.

Champ Pegasus and Al Khali are the other contenders from the home team. Richard Mandella's Champ Pegasus [28.0] didn't run until last December but has progressed well, winning the Clement L. Hirsch at Hollywood last time. He's certainly the most upwardly mobile of the US-trained horses and is clearly in fine heart, but on form he has a mountain to climb. Al Khali [19.0] actually beat Winchester, who is shorter in the betting, at Belmont two starts back, but even a repeat of that form isn't going to be enough for William Mott's rig to make a serious impact.

Japanese raider Red Desire would be an interesting runner but is surely better off taking on Midday in the Filly & Mare Turf on Friday. Andre Fabre's Plumania is another who is doubly entered, and similar comments apply to her.

Workforce's biggest threat could come from fellow Brit raiders Dangerous Midge and Debussy. Trained by Brian Meehan, who won the Turf at Churchill Downs in 2006 with Red Rocks, Dangerous Midge [9.6] has been much improved this year, supplementing his Haydock Old Newton Cup success with a win in the Newbury Arc Trial. That form has since been franked, with the runner-up Rainbow Peak going on to win an Italian Group 1, and given the way Dangerous Midge has gone so far, it's difficult to rule out further improvement, especially as he's still relatively unexposed at a mile and a half.

John Gosden's Debussy [13.0] didn't really cut it as a 3-y-o but has come of age this year, so much so that he should arguably be challenging for second favouritism, rated just 1 lb lower than Behkabad and 1 lb ahead of Dangerous Midge. The winner of the Huxley Stakes at Chester (a track which is quite similar to the Churchill Downs Turf course in that it is sharp and turning) back in May, Debussy has already had one winning foray to America, landing the Arlington Million in Chicago in August. Admittedly, the runner-up Gio Ponti wasn't at his best that day and the race very much fell Debussy's way, but everything looks in place for him to run well again after his recent third in the Champion at Newmarket and stamina shouldn't be an issue tried again at a mile and a half given the track puts the emphasis on speed.

In summary, if the Workforce that showed up at Epsom and Longchamp is in America then he is nigh-on unopposable, but Ascot, for whatever reason, showed there are chinks in his impressive armour, and the best play might be to back Workforce to win and then back another at smaller stakes win and place, namely Debussy.

Recommendations

Back Workforce to win @ [2.44]
Back Debussy to win @ [13.0] and to place