Breeders' Cup Betting: Uncle Mo too short in the Juvenile?

Breeders’ Cup Ante-Post Previews / Timeform / 01 November 2010 / Leave a Comment

Arazi was a spectacular winner at Churchhill Downs in 1991

"Uncle Mo has plenty going for him, being proven on dirt, but he’s plenty short enough and it might be worth chancing that one of the other promising sorts takes to the surface well, such as J B’s Thunder."

Is the Juvenile favourite Uncle Mo home and hosed, or is it worth taking him on?

Everyone remembers Arazi's phenomenal success in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in 1991 (watch the video here if you haven't seen it), but generally it's been a race that the Americans have dominated, only Johannesburg (2001), Wilko (2004) and Vale of York (2009) breaking their stranglehold since then.

There is only one European entry this year, Mahmood Al Zarooni's Biondetti, who has a better chance than current Betfair odds of [15.0] suggest. From the Godolphin operation, which sent over Vale of York last year, Biondetti is already a Group 1 winner (in Italy) from just three starts, but he does admittedly have something to find with the pick of the home-trained runners.

They are led by Todd Pletcher's Uncle Mo, the [2.6] market leader. Uncle Mo has created a big impression in winning both starts easily, namely a maiden at Saratoga in August by a massive 14 lengths and the Champagne Stakes at Belmont in September. He made virtually all again in the latter, travelling well despite being pressured for lead, and ran on strongly to beat Mountain Town 4¾ lengths. Already Timeform rated 120p, Uncle Mo is undoubtedly a high-class prospect.

Whether Uncle Mo should be that sort of price is a different matter, however, as there are a number of lightly-raced and promising sorts in opposition. J B's Thunder is also unbeaten in two starts, namely a maiden at Saratoga in August and the Futurity at Keeneland in October. He beat the useful Santiva both times, and showed plenty of improvement when winning by four lengths on the latter occasion, making all. He is, however, yet to race on dirt.

J P's Gusto has a similar level of form (also on synthetics), but he doesn't have quite the same potential after four runs and didn't fully convince that he wants a mile last time. He completed a hat-trick in the Del Mar Futurity in September, but couldn't confirm form over Jaycito over the extra distance in the Norfolk Stakes at Hollywood Park, which is recognised as the leading West Coast Trial for the Juvenile.

Stay Thirsty, Boys At Tosconova and Rogue Romance are the other leading contenders, the former a more than able second string for Todd Pletcher, having improved to chase home the second named in the Grade 1 hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last time, though Dutrow's winner was just nudged out to assert and should confirm the form.

Uncle Mo has plenty going for him, being proven on dirt, but he's plenty short enough and it might be worth chancing that one of the other promising sorts takes to the surface well, such as J B's Thunder or Biondetti.

Recommendations

Back J B's Thunder @ [19.0]