Breeders' Cup Betting: Midday a Friday banker in the Filly & Mare Turf?

Breeders’ Cup Ante-Post Previews / Timeform / 30 October 2010 / Leave a Comment

Last year's Filly & Mare Turf winner Midday is as short as [2.06] to follow up

"Unraced at two years, John Shireffs' Harmonius has improved rapidly to win four of her six starts this year, most notably the American Oaks at Hollywood Park and the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland."

Timeform looks at whether it's worth opposing Henry Cecil's Midday, one of the Breeders' Cup hotpots...

One of the latecomers to the Breeders' Cup party, inaugurated in 1999, the Filly & Mare Turf already has a rich history, with the likes of Banks Hill (2001), Islington (2003) and Ouija Board (2004 & 2006) featuring on the roll of honour.

Ed Dunlop's Ouija Board is the only one to have won the race twice, so far, but that could be about to change as Midday [2.06] would seem to have an excellent chance of following up her win from twelve months earlier. Last year Midday arrived at Santa Anita on the back of a below-par run in the Prix de l'Opera, but she returned to form to give the Europeans a fifth win in the race from the last nine runnings as she beat Pure Clan a length.

That, perhaps surprisingly, was a first Breeders' Cup win for her trainer Henry Cecil, but confidence is high that he can add a second. Midday has looked at least as good this year, if not even better, unbeaten in three starts since going down to Sariska on her reappearance, landing Group 1 wins in the Nassau, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille. Midday has shown a tendency to idle this year, which has disguised her superiority at times, and current cramped odds are reflective of her outstanding chance, the only real concern being the tight, turning turf track at Churchill Downs, which mightn't suit, liable to find trouble if matters become tactical.

Also going over from Britain is Hibaayeb [25.0], who runs in the colours of Godolphin, She hasn't been easy to predict this year but has shown herself a very smart filly at times, winning the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and the Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Hollywood Park earlier this month. On Lasix for her American debut, Hibaayeb looked full value for her win, but at the same time it's worth noting that ground seems important to her, on firmer than good for the first time since at Ascot at Hollywood Park and not sure to get the same conditions at Churchill Downs.

Andre Fabre's Plumania [12.0], on the other hand, has handled whatever ground she's encountered and makes plenty of appeal in the place market in a race her trainer won in 2003 with Banks Hill. The winner of the Grand-Prix de Saint-Cloud, Plumania finished three quarters of a length behind Midday in the Vermeille next time. Unlike Midday, who swerved the Arc, Plumania returned to Longchamp on the first Sunday in October but she needn't have bothered, never a factor. That run at least shouldn't have done her any harm, and she should be capable of getting close to Midday again.

If the betting is to be believed Midday's biggest threat could come from Japan, in the shape of Red Desire [8.0]. Runner-up in the Japanese Guineas and Oaks, Red Desire landed a first Group 1 success last year in the Shuka Sho at Kyoto and, having subsequently finished third in the Japan Cup, showed herself a filly to be reckoned with when winning Round 3 of the Maktoum Challenge at Meydan on her reappearance. Though she flopped next time, in the Dubai World Cup, she shaped well recently when around a length third to Ave in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes at Belmont, when seeming to need the race. She should be spot on for Churchill Downs and shouldn't be underestimated.

In general, the Americans seem to be just making up the numbers, but two well worth mentioning are Forever Together and Harmonious. Forever Together [27.0], of course, won the Filly & Mare Turf in 2008. Although she wasn't seen to best effect when attempting to follow up last year, only third behind Midday, it would still be stretching it to suggest she can get the better of her old rival this time, for all she's looked at least as good at the age of six (twice placed in Grade 1s prior to flopping on rain-softened ground last time).

Whilst Forever Together has very much been there and done it, Harmonious [10.5] is at the other end of the spectrum as a 3-y-o in the ascendency. Unraced at two years, John Shireffs' Harmonius has improved rapidly to win four of her six starts this year, most notably the American Oaks at Hollywood Park and the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, in the latter reversing Del Mar Oaks form with Evening Jewel and stamping herself the leading home-based threat to Midday. She's not yet the finished article, again wandering in the straight at Keeneland, and has more improvement in her, especially now she's set to face a trip which should be right up her street judged on pedigree, by the US sire Dynaformer who produced the 2007 St Leger winner Lucarno.

Like in the Turf on Saturday, it's hard to find anything to oppose the favourite, as if Midday and Workforce give their running they will win, it's as simple as that. However, Midday shouldn't be shorter to win her race than Workforce is to win his, and it might be worth backing both Plumania and Harmonious to win and place, if more in the hope rather than expectation that Midday doesn't live up to her billing.

Recommendations

Back Plumania to win @ [12.0] and to place
Back Harmonious to win @ [10.5] and to place