Breeders' Cup Betting: Dan the wise selection in the Sprint?

Breeders’ Cup Ante-Post Previews / Timeform / 01 November 2010 / Leave a Comment

After two years on Pro-Ride, the Sprint is back on the traditional dirt surface

"Wise Dan has progressed well this year to win three of his four races, most notably the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland in October."

The Breeders' Cup Sprint is a race the Americans have dominated down the years and returns to the traditional dirt surface in 2010, so it's no surprise the Europeans have again shied away.

If the betting has it right, this Breeders' Cup Sprint should be a straight shootout up front between Girolamo and Big Drama.

Girolamo won three times last year for Kieran McLaughlin prior to flopping in the Classic and, though not out for Godolphin this year until September, he put up a career-best when dropped to six furlongs last time, winning the Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont. That was his fifth win from just nine starts but, although this race is very much up for grabs after the retirement of Majesticperfection, Girolamo is quite likely to attract more support than his form warrants.

Big Drama, on the other hand, is arguably a bigger price than he should be in relation to Girolamo, having finished in front of him when second to Here Comes Ben in the Forego Handicap at Saratoga. On the day, Big Drama even looked the most likely winner for much of the straight. Just as effective at six furlongs, Big Drama should give a bold bid from the front.

However, whilst that pair dominate the betting, top of the Timeform ratings is Kinsale King, who is only third best in the Betfair market. Carl O Callaghan's Kinsale King will be known to many after his foray to Britain this summer, when he finished third to Starspandgledbanner in the Golden Jubilee. He is easily excused his next run, when not himself in the July Cup, and a return to the form he showed in the spring, when winning the Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan, will see him go close. Lightly raced for a 5-y-o, Kinsale King has to prove himself on dirt (acts on synthetics), which is perhaps why he's available to back at around [10.0].

Smiling Tiger is another of the more likely types, having improved markedly to win three times this year, including the Grade 1 Ancient Title Stakes at Hollywood Park. Dirt is also an unknown with him, but again that is factored into the price.

The last one to mention is Charles Loprestri's Wise Dan. Unraced in 2009, Wise Dan has progressed well this year to win three of his four races, most notably the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland in October. Proven on dirt (sloppy), Wise Dan is the type to improve further and could represent a bit of value at around [11.0], as he's got more than enough speed to serve it up to the pair who dominate the betting.

Recommendations

Back Big Drama to win
Back Wise Dan to win