Tour De France: The best betting opportunities in the side markets

Tour De France / Jack Houghton / 02 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

The pack makes its way, unbelievably, down a cobbled road!

"Cancellara is utterly dominant in the prologue discipline – winning three world championships and an Olympic gold – it’s impossible to oppose him with any conviction."

Jack Houghton searches for a little value in the 2010 Tour de France betting and explains some of the concepts behind betting on the world's greatest cycle race

Even though it is unlikely anything of note will happen in the overall classification until Stage Eight of this year's Tour De France - when the peloton meets the Alps - it doesn't mean there isn't plenty of punting to be had before then.

The Tour opens on Saturday in Rotterdam (not Liverpool or Rome) with a 9km Prologue for which Fabian Cancellara is the odds-on favourite. Utterly dominant in this discipline - winning three world championships and an Olympic gold - it's impossible to oppose him with any conviction. He won the Tour prologue in London in 2007 and 2009 in Monaco and, at [1.63] this time around, is value to repeat those successes.

Cancellara's price is been kept buoyant by the presence of Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins. Martin won the time trial in the Tour of California and Tour de Suisse, in the latter-named becoming the first person to beat Cancellara at the discipline in three years. However, both those time trials were on wide roads, with few turns - conditions Martin himself admits gives him an advantage over others. He'll be less at home on the tight, turning Rotterdam circuit.

Wiggins' track pedigree looks attractive over the prologue distance, but Team Sky boss, Dave Brailsford, has stated he does not want a prologue victory to negatively impact on the team's primary aim of placing high in the overall classification. Wiggins might have to risk too much to beat Cancellara's derring-do on the day, and his team will not be keen on trying to defend Yellow from so early in the Tour.

Martin's teammate - Manxman Mark Cavendish - sets out this year in an attempt to win the Points Classification. Despite being the most successful sprinter in last year's Tour - in that he won six stages - Cavendish was still denied the Green Jersey by Thor Hushovd, albeit by a mere ten points. Cavendish's team, HTC-Columbia, have selected their Tour squad with the sole articulated aim being to support Cavendish's bid for Green, but still, at [2.3], there seems little value to be had.

Cavendish has had a difficult year - enduring recurring dental problems; crashing in the Tour de Suisse and angering the peloton in the process; and being sanctioned for a two-fingered salute in the Tour de Romandie. In last year's Tour the media reported his unpopularity with other riders and, in a mountainous renewal, Cavendish could well struggle to stay in the required peak condition all the way to Paris.

Hushovd is worth a small bet at [6.4] to repeat his Green Jersey success of the last two years - despite a fractured collar bone hampering his Tour preparation - but best value lies with Tyler Farrar at [6.7]. The American comes from a sprinting heritage and debuts in the Tour de France with a number of sprint wins in other stage races in the bag - including two at this year's Giro d'Italia.

Anyone choosing to bet in-play in this year's Tour will certainly be well served by the extensive coverage on Eurosport and ITV, but in-play's a difficult game to play-in well. After years of trying to figure it all out, I'm still a little nonplussed as to when a breakaway will be allowed to stay broken-away; or when the hive-minded Peloton will insist on its destruction.

A useful rule of thumb is that if it looks like the pack has made up its mind to chase, it can generally close down runaways at a rate of a minute every nine or ten kilometres; meaning a relatively straightforward bit of maths can tell you the true odds for a breakaway pack. However, monitor your bets, because just as quickly as the Peloton can decide to chase, it can decide to relent. It really is a complicated organism.

Recommendations:
Back Cancellara in the Prologue.
Back Farrar in the Points Classification, with a saver on Hushovd.
Think hard before betting in-play on any stage.