Tour de France Betting: Yellow Jersey Preview

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 03 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Tobias Gourlay gears up for the summer's most arduous sporting event with a look at who might be wearing the maillot jaune in Paris in three weeks' time.

Three riders set off on the 2009 Tour de France having won the last Tour they entered. Carlos Sastre, the defending champion, didn't have to beat Alberto Contador, the 2007 winner, last year because El Pistolero's team was not allowed to enter. That team, Astana, is back with a new member. Lance Armstrong is 37 now, but has won the last seven Tours he has started, the most recent in 2005.

After some marathon-running and mountain-biking, Mellow Johnny decided last September that he didn't like retirement. Preparations were disrupted by a broken collarbone at the end of March, but, in May, he rode the Giro d'Italia, something he never did in his pomp, and came 12th. It is hard to believe he showed his full hand in that race, and that is why he is second favourite for the maillot jaune at [7.4].

Armstrong's refusal to ride for anyone other than his old boss, Johan Bruyneel, is why he has ended up in the same colours as Contador, the man he acknowledged as 'the best rider in the world at the moment' in March. Whether the Texan still believes that is debatable.

At 26, Contador has already become only the fifth man ever to win all three of the Grand Tours - he came first in the 2007 Tour, the 2008 Giro and the 2008 Vuelta a Espana, the last three Grand Tours he has entered - and is the strong favourite to win Le Tour this year.

The Spaniard is a wonderful climber and took a minute out of his closest rivals on the Angliru - one of the very hardest climbs in professional cycling - in last year's Vuelta. This season, he dominated Paris-Nice, until he 'bonked' after failing to eat properly on a hilly stage, and won the Tour of the Basque Country and the Volta ao Algarve. He was beaten by a team-mate, Levi Leipheimer, in the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, and has been in training ever since.

Such is Contador's climbing ability that his time-trialling has been underrated in the past. He beat Bradley Wiggins in this year's Paris-Nice prologue, won the Spanish time-trial championships a few weeks ago, and the uphill-downhill nature of Saturday's opening 15km stage against the clock should suit him. A worthy favourite, even at [2.14], it is not obvious where he might lose time - Astana's team of Galacticos should do well in Stage Four's team time-trial - and backing him now should keep you on the right side of the exchange in the long run.

Saxo Bank's Andy Schleck ([8.6]) is enough of a mountain goat to trouble Contador up Mont Ventoux. He has a strong team behind him, including brother Frank, although his time-trialling is not yet up to scratch. Should be worth getting him on-side at some stage, but not before the opening time-trial.

Cadel Evans ([12.0]) looked to have a much better chance last year, when Contador, Leipheimer and Armstrong weren't around, but he let Carlos Sastre escape on Alpe d'Huez, and had to settle for a second consecutive second place. Although Silence-Lotto have since acquired Charlie Wegelius, a very good British domestique, they have lost Thomas Dekker to a positive EPO test, and the team remains relatively weak.

No-one has won the Giro and Le Tour back-to-back since Marco Pantani in 1998. This year's Giro winner, Denis Menchov, was most impressive in the time-trial stages of that event. He blows up too often on the really big climbs for this spectator's liking, and is even worse coming down the other side. His Rabobank team is arguably even weaker than Evans's lot, and if he has a good opening individual time-trial, the Russian ([16.5]) might be worth a lay.

Carlos Sastre, [23.0] to win again, is a relatively weak time-triallist, and should lose time to most of the other contenders in the opening stage. He no longer has the brothers Schleck to squeeze the life out of his rivals in the mountains, as he did last time, although he showed he is still among the very best climbers in finishing fourth at this year's Giro. His team owner's suggestion that Cervelo are 'not desperate' to win yellow is a concern.

Finally, there are three longer-shots that merit mentions as attractive back-to-lay options. Levi Leipheimer ([50.0]), another Astana rider, will be supporting Contador, or perhaps Armstrong, but, with similar instructions, finished within a minute of the Spaniard in his Le Tour and Vuelta wins. An excellent time-triallist, he would have wanted more than just 55km against the clock in the whole race, but his price should come in as he gets stronger towards the end of the race.

Roman Kreuziger, Liquigas's young Czech, is a [110.0] shot, who looks ready to improve on last year's 13th place and enter the top ten.

Christian Vande Velde finished fifth last year, despite a crash. He broke ribs at this year's Giro, but has spent most of his career riding with back pain. An interesting, if risky, proposition at [110.0].