Tour De France Betting: The most competitive Tour in recent memory

Tour De France / Jack Houghton / 21 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Jack Houghton is holding out for a Cadel Evans capitulation in the Alps when the Tour gets back on track this week...

Anyone following the tips of Miguel - a regular listener and email correspondent of Betfair Radio - would be showing a handsome profit in this year's Tour De France. He's demonstrated an uncanny ability to predict stage winners, and his two pre-race overall classification bets of Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov are both significantly shorter than when he first put them up.

Nonetheless, despite recognising Miguel's tipping superiority, my own position in the overall classification is looking distinctly more healthy than it did on the last rest day. A small pre-race back of Alejandro Valverde had become an all but certain loser and, more significantly, a hefty pre-race lay of Evans looked decidedly shaky.

Things now look a little better. Although still highly unlikely to recover enough time to seriously compete for a Tour win, Valverde at least showed signs of recovery in the first Alpine stage yesterday and, although I've written off my stake on him, he is likely to be one of the riders to assist in hurting Evans in the two punishing mountain stages that immediately follow this rest day. I'd be particularly interested in backing him for a stage win on L'Alpe D'Huez.

It didn't go well for Evans on the climb to Prato Nevoso yesterday. As predicted, his lack of team support in the first mountain stage since the Tour left the Pyrenees, saw him struggle to ward off attacks. He has now dropped to third place overall and my two significant lays of him, at [2.62] early on and at [1.9] immediately after the first rest day, are now on the right side of his current price of [2.84]. Some would close out at this point, but I'm going in to lay him again today: repeated attacks in the next two stages will see him lose more time and I think his price will continue to drift. That's not to say he won't win the Tour - he's more than capable of recovering time lost in the remaining Individual Time Trial - and I'll probably look to close out my position on him at around [3.5].

I'm happy to stay with my small win bet on Frank Schleck at [14.5]. Although not the strongest trialist, support from his brother Andy saw him take the Yellow Jersey yesterday, and he looks a likely rider to hold his lead through the mountains.

I'm getting rid of Carlos Sastre however. I recommended a back at [15.0] and have now laid him at [10.5] for a small profit. Despite closing in on the lead to now sit only 49 seconds behind, he looked defensive in his riding yesterday and is likely best employed in support of his CSC team-mate, Frank Schleck.

A price I can't understand is the [3.9] currently available for Menchov. Although omnipresent in the mountain stages, he hasn't appeared capable of putting serious time between him and his rivals. He attacked briefly yesterday, and looked to have Evans in trouble with 1.9km to go on the climb to Prato Nevoso, but he soon capitulated, and it was left to Frank Schleck to make the Yellow Jersey-grabbing move. This lack of aggression from Menchov, coupled with competent, rather than stunning, time trialling ability, makes him a lay in my book.

This year's Tour is the most competitive in living memory. Going into yesterday's stage, 1:28 covered the first six riders. Coming out of it, a mere 49 seconds covers the same six. As ITV's Phil Liggett expertly summed things up: "This stage was supposed to open the race up; it's actually closed it down." It was certainly one of the most exciting stages I can remember, with mini-attack after mini-attack accompanied by frantic calculations of potential seconds lost or gained. It was not unlike the complex mathematical machinations of points and goal difference that can dominate the final minutes of a football season. And we've got two more days in the mountains to look forward to.

In other Tour news, my recommended bets on Riccardo Ricco in the White Jersey and King Of The Mountain competitions were scuppered within 48 hours as the Italian rider failed a drug test and was kicked out of the race. Although frustrated, I remain phlegmatic; I guess it's a risk of doing cycling-betting-business these days.

And it seems there will forever be a way to make easy money on flat sprint stages in the Tour De France. Just back Mark Cavendish, no matter how short his price. He's now quit this year's race to concentrate on his Olympic preparations, but not before winning four stages in sprint finishes; often from seemingly impossible positions. He'll be a rider to follow next year.

In the meantime, I'm fighting back. If closing everything out now, I'd be in profit... just. But after all this work I want more. L'Alpe D'Huez is only two stages away and I'll be dreaming of Valverde and the Schleck brothers sticking it to Evans and Menchov on that infamous climb.