Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 11 July 2011 /

If Mark Cavendish wants to win five stages this year, he must be prepared to work very hard today, says Tobias Gourlay

The Tour is slightly further west than where we left it in Saint Flour on Sunday night. Tuesday's stage, the first after the rest day, begins in Aurillac and runs through the Cevennes to Carmaux. The Pyrenees are only a couple of days away and stage ten's route includes two fourth-category and two third-category climbs.

Breakaway specialists, revived by a day off, will fancy their chances. Europcar's Thomas Voeckler will not be allowed to try anything now that he's in yellow, but there are others who dream of emulating him. Riders from the other wildcard teams should be considered and Cofidis' Samuel Dumoulin would make some appeal at [75.0] or so.

Leaderless Sky, Astana and - effectively - Rabobank should now be treated like a group of loose horses in a national hunt race. Be prepared for any of them to bolt at any time. Rabobank's Lars Boom ([100.0]) could choose today to go, but with so many riders now let off domestique duties, there is a much bigger pool from which to pick the day's most likely baroudeurs.

There's more than half a chance none of the breakaways succeed. The sprinters and their teams are also refreshed and, because this year's race is less kind to the fast men than usual, their efforts to control today's stage should be redoubled. Mark Cavendish is capable of surviving the hills at the front of the peloton and is very tempting at [4.0].

Best Bet: Back Mark Cavendish @ [4.0] to be Stage 10 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: