Tour de France Betting: Stage Nineteen TT

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 23 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

I'm Spartacus: When it comes to the time trials, everyone wishes they could be Fabian Cancellara.

"Fabian Cancellara, the six-time Swiss time-trial champion, the three-time world time-trial champion, the one-time Olympic time-trial champion, earned his fifth contre-la-montre victory in the Tour de France in the Prologue and will like the look of the very flat route profile."

Spartacus won't be defying any odds if he records another victory today, says Tobias Gourlay.

It's been a tough old Tour. Listen to Garmin's David Millar, who hurt a rib almost three weeks ago and has been barely surviving elimination ever since: 'It's horrific, I've hated it. It's been miserable. I just want to get to Paris. Once I get to Paris I'll enjoy it, but at the moment it's just been excruciating. I am in no physical shape for Saturday's time trial. I'll do it at 100% but there won't be a result, not a hope. Finishing here is the number one goal, in whatever state that is.'

The Scotsman finished third in this year's Prologue and is among the favourites for today's individual time trial, but is clearly best avoided, even at [75.0]. He's as long as that because there is one outstanding candidate to be the quickest man around the 52km course from Bordeaux to Pauillac.

Fabian Cancellara, the six-time Swiss time-trial champion, the three-time world time-trial champion, the one-time Olympic time-trial champion, earned his fifth contre-la-montre victory in the Tour de France in the Prologue and will like the look of the very flat route profile. It's not technically difficult and Spartacus's straight-line power is unrivalled. He's probably pretty tired, just like the others, but he was riding well for Andy Schleck on the Col du Tourmalet a couple of days ago. Meteorological bad luck could stop him winning, but there's no rain forecast and it's hard to see any reason for not heavily backing him to win at [1.9].

Bradley Wiggins suffered meteorological bad luck when we backed him to do well in the Prologue - he went out early, unlike most of the other big names, and caught the worst of the downpour - and since then he's been suffering the bad luck of not being in very good form. In interview he's seemed very keen to salvage something from a race in which he will finish well down on the fourth spot he surprisingly achieved 12 months. This is his chance to salvage that something and desperation might propel him on through his tiredness.

Rabobank's Denis Menchov is another rider who shouldn't lack motivation. He needs to take 22 seconds out of third-placed Samuel Sanchez in order to snatch the Euskatel man's place on the podium in Paris. He's a good enough time-triallist to do that and, amongst so many tired, less-focused riders, he's capable of a top-three finish for the stage too.

Best Bet: Back Fabian Cancellara at [1.92] to be Stage 19 TT Winner

Recommended Bet: Back Bradley Wiggins at [4.5] for a Stage 19 TT Top 3 Finish