Tour de France Betting: Stage 19

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 21 July 2011 /

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Andy Schleck won the queen stage yesterday, but the kings of the mountains might beat him today

"If Basso doesn't win tomorrow, his Tour – and his good form – will quickly be forgotten"

Andy Schleck won the 2011 Tour's 'queen' stage yesterday, but does not yet have a decisive advantage over Cadel Evans. Tobias Gourlay bonked on the way up the Galibier and approaches Alpe d'Huez with a sense of trepidation

Andy Schleck finally made one of his attacks pay yesterday, winning the stage with a remarkable breakaway from his GC rivals that has since made him joint favourite with Cadel Evans to win the whole Tour.

He made this column pay too. Rigoberto Uran crashed, Alberto Contador burned and Ivan Basso finished fourth, but never persuaded the market he was a likely winner. Contador is now [36.0] to wear yellow in Paris. The Spaniard joins Philippe Gilbert from the Points Classification market as a bet that should have been laid off as soon as the opportunity presented itself.

Today's stage is not much more than half the length of yesterday's, but it crams in the Col du Galibier (again) and Alpe d'Huez.

Only four of the 26 previous winners of stages with summit finishes on Alpe d'Huez have gone on to wear yellow in Paris, but the Schlecks will attack again, if their legs allow. Andy ([5.80]) needs to take more time out of Thomas Voeckler and Cadel Evans before Saturday's time trial. Frank ([3.85]) needs to do the same if he is to make the podium in Paris. It's not clear that Frank should be the favourite - more than ever now he is in the service of his younger brother - and Andy is the more appealingly priced of the two.

Jelle Vanendert ([24.0]) and Samuel Sanchez ([22.0]) struggled up Galibier yesterday, but are the top two in the King of the Mountains competition. They have something to fight for and the brevity of the stage might encourage one more attacking ride. Split your stake between the two of them and you will be able to watch their mano a mano (piernas a piernas, more literally) in comfort.

Basso ([28.0]) survived yesterday relatively comfortably. If he doesn't win tomorrow, his Tour - and the good form he loved to talk about before the race began - will quickly be forgotten.

Best Bet: Back Jelle Vanendert @ [24.0] & Samuel Sanchez @ [22.0] to be Stage 19 Winner
Recommended Bet: Back Ivan Basso @ [28.0] to be Stage 19 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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