Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 20 July 2011 /

As the 2011 Tour approaches the Col du Galibier, Tobias Gourlay is looking to an Italian to take his P&L to new heights

The only way is Norway.

The cycling coldspot in Scandinavia claims Thor Hushovd and Edvald Boasson Hagen as its own and each man now has two stage wins to his name. Hushovd is much further advanced in his career than Boasson Hagen, but for both this feels like a defining Tour.

Remember the names for next year, however, because there are only a couple of the most severe Alpine stages, a time trial (Fabian Cancellara's) and the traditional Parisian finale (Mark Cavendish's) to go this time.

The chosen ones of this column idled - that's a little harsh - in the bunch yesterday, which means you should look out for Moncoutie, Cunego, Kreuziger and Uran today.

The serious GC contenders grabbed a bunch of time back from Thomas Voeckler and, if you laid him at [15.0] with us a couple of days ago, you can now back him at [55.0] for a tidy profit. Concomitantly, Alberto Contador's price shortened again and, if it's him you're worried about, you can lay off for a (very) small profit at [2.58].

Thursday's stage takes the riders from Pinerolo up three 2,000m mountains to a finish atop the Col du Galibier. The summit finish is the highest in the history of the race and the altitude might advantage Uran ([120.0]), who is from a town in Colombia more than 1,800m above sea level.

It will take a huge effort for someone to break away and win this 200km stage, so a lot of the climbers will focus their effort on Friday's shorter stage. The winner today seems likely to come from the group of GC contenders and Contador is the [2.52] favourite.

This column has enough riding with the Spaniard already. The Saxo Bank man is very pally with his compatriot, Samuel Sanchez ([12.5]), and might be prepared to give up the stage win in return for some co-ordinated attacks on Cadel Evans and the Schlecks.

Evans is likely to ride defensively, but if he is strong enough to be favourite in the overall Winner market, he should be shorter than [20.0] here because he should survive most or all of the attacks and wouldn't give up a stage win easily.

Jelle Vanendert ([17.5]) leads the King of the Mountains competition, but is still far enough behind in the GC that his attacks can be ignored by the big boys.

Ivan Basso ([34.0]) has lost time recently and is also out of GC contention. He needs to do something special to earn a place on the podium and seems to be in better-than-usual form.

Best Bet: Back Ivan Basso @ [34.0] to be Stage 18 Winner
Recommended Bet: Back Rigoberto Uran @ [120.0] to be Stage 18 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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