Tour de France Betting: Stage 16

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 18 July 2011 /

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Daredevil descenders will do well on stage 16

"There’s just one category-two climb, it’s close to the finish and the final 10km give opportunities to a daredevil descender like Gilbert"

Philippe Gilbert is the favourite to win another stage, but Tobias Gourlay has found an HTC rider not called Mark Cavendish to challenge him

Mark Cavendish won his fourth stage of this year's Tour in Montpellier on Sunday, satisfying the high expectations of his odds-on backers, including this column. He will contest one more sprint finish on the Champs-Elysees this Sunday and, if he wins, he will complete what for him will be an average Tour - five stage wins this year matches 15 in the previous three.

The green jersey - his first - would be the lurid icing on the cake. This column opposed him with Philippe Gilbert after stage five. The Belgian came in from [4.4] to [1.6] - when we should have laid him - but has retreated now amid confusing team tactics and a blip over the weekend when it seemed he would concentrate on his GC position.

Omega Pharma Lotto prefers to help Andre Greipel in sprint finishes, so Gilbert - who will leave the team at the end of the season - is on his own. Stage 16 takes the Tour to the foothills of the Alps and suits him well. There's just one category-two climb, it's close to the finish and the final 10km give opportunities to a daredevil descender like Gilbert - the [8.8] favourite for the stage win - to breakaway. He should at least give a good back-to-lay opportunity.

Cavendish's team, HTC, are going to mark Gilbert. Matt Goss ([65.0]) is the rider most able to track him on the descent and beat him in a sprint.

Look out too for the usual French baroudeurs, Sandy Casar ([32.0]) and Sylvain Chavanel ([22.0]). The latter is still recovering from a first-week crash, but will try something anyway.

Thor Hushovd ([12.5]) is in the form of his life, but his team-mate David Millar ([95.0]) will be just as interested in individual glory.

Oh, and the last two times this column's backed Casar, he's been pipped by Luis Leon Sanchez ([25.0]).

Best Bet: Back Philippe Gilbert @ [8.8] to be Stage 16 Winner
Recommended Bet: Back Mathew Goss @ [65.0] to be Stage 16 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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