Tour de France Betting: Stage 15

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 /

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Mark Cavendish will perk up now the Pyrenees are behind him

"We can be confident that Cavendish has the stamina to build up to a fast finish in Montpellier today"

After Jelle Vanendert's surprise win yesterday, Tobias Gourlay expects a more familiar face to lead the Tour home today

A serious new climber announced himself on the ride up to Plateau de Beille yesterday: Jelle Vanendert. Given a voice of his own by Omega Pharma Lotto after team leader Jurgen Van Den Broeck abandoned the race, there was a quiet statement of intent as he was second up Luz Ardiden on Thursday. This time he shouted his name from one of the rooftops of Europe.

Our man Frank Schleck opened one window of opportunity to lay him for a small profit, taking turns with brother Andy to attack the GC contenders, none of whom they could shake. Our other man, Roman Kreuziger - a [100.0] shot - showed himself not at all.

Thomas Voeckler's survival in the yellow jersey suggests that the Schlecks and Alberto Contador are not in the form of previous years, but the Frenchman should be shaken off in the Alps, where the gradients of the climbs are steeper and, if not, he will be beaten by all in the individual time-trial. If you don't mind laying bets at [15.0], you can oppose the Frenchman in the Winner market.

Stage 15 is for the sprinters, who have struggled through the Pyrenees in the autobus. Mark Cavendish is the favourite, of course. He is much smaller than his main rivals, Tyler Farrar and Andre Greipel, and we can be more confident that he has the stamina to build up to a fast finish in Montpellier today because he has made it to Paris in each of the last two Tours.

Best Bet: Back Mark Cavendish @ [1.77] to be Stage 15 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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