Tour de France Betting: Stage 14

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 /

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Frank Schleck should be the most attacking of the GC contenders again

"The winners of the four previous stages to finish on top of Plateau de Beille have gone on to win yellow in Paris

Tobias Gourlay faces an uphill struggle trying to pick a fourth straight stage winner

Thor Hushovd described yesterday's stage win as the best of the nine in his career to date. This column would probably do likewise. Not least because of Thor's [36.0] ante-post price.

Today's stage is the third and final one in the Pyrenees, taking the Tour from Saint-Gaudens via five categorised climbs - including Port d'Aspet, the steepest in this year's race - to Les Cabannes, where the riders must then ascend Plateau de Beille.

A fact about Plateau de Beille: the winners of the four previous stages to finish at its summit have gone on to win yellow in Paris (Marco Pantini in 1998, Lance Armstrong in 2002 and 2004, and Alberto Contador in 2007).

Contador ([5.6]) is the favourite to win today. He says his knee has stopped hurting and he will attack if an opportunity presents itself, but his word is the only evidence we have. Is that enough?

Frank Schleck ([9.0]) was the most aggressive of the GC contenders in the first big mountain stage two days ago, although, with the exception of Contador, his rivals were largely untroubled by his efforts. The older Schleck has shown better form than his more fancied brother this year and, so long as he is not totally in Andy's service, he will offer trading opportunities every time he gets out of his saddle.

We found yesterday's winner by looking at the previous day's autobus. We also found Edvald Boasson Hagen, a [15.0] shot who attacked, came right in to [3.0] and finished sixth. The name that stands out from Thursday's autobus is Roman Kreuziger.

The Czech rider for Astana, who was injured in a first-week crash, attacked on the road to Luz Ardiden a couple of days ago. Nothing came of it, but he said afterwards, 'I feel that the condition is there and I think we'll reach to achieve beautiful things in the coming days.' It seems very much like he was resting yesterday in order to try something today. It's not clear he would be any more successful this time, but back him now at [100.0] and any serious move would bring excellent trading opportunities.

Best Bet: Back-to-lay Frank Schleck @ [9.0] to be Stage 14 Winner
Recommended Bet: Back-to-lay Roman Kreuziger @ [100.0] to be Stage 14 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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