Tour De France / Jack Houghton / 07 June 2009 / Leave a comment

As the countdown to the start of the Tour De France continues, Jack Houghton discusses the story that has dominated the build up to it: the return to action of Lance Armstrong. He's almost certain to take part but is he a genuine contender?

Dozing off to Radio 4 back in September, the news of Lance Armstrong's comeback registered only partially. It came and went as all news does at that time of night: as nothing more than accompanying lift-music on a descent into sleep. The next morning the reality and, in fact, the dawn, dawned on me. The story was as ridiculous as it was remarkable and, even eight months later, still causes an almost daily bewildered shake of the head: surely this can't be happening?

When Armstrong retired in July 2005 - after a record-breaking consecutive seventh win in the Tour De France - he brought to a close the most successful cycling career and, I would argue, sporting career, of all time. What could he possibly have to gain from dragging his 37-year old body back to the saddle? Surely this could only end in disappointment? Or, worse still, embarrassment?

But Armstrong was clear: this wasn't an ageing man dealing with a mid-life crisis. He knew any thought of regaining his previous professional stature was folly; this was just to be a publicity exercise - a way of further raising the profile, and political leverage, of his cancer charity. However, there was something discordant in his words; a sense that he might have been saying one thing, whilst believing another.

As the weeks rolled by and Armstrong's comeback moved from recreational marathoner, to competitive mountain biker, to mid-pack road racer, to now, most recently in the Giro d'Italia, genuine contender; the language has changed. There is still caution, but it's clear he isn't heading into this year's Tour with the intention of riding round to spearhead a publicity junket. He thinks he can win.

And punters on Betfair are inclined to agree. When Armstrong's name was first added to the Tour market, his price soon settled at what looked like an absurdly short [11.0]. Whilst there have been peaks and troughs in that price since, the overall movement has been down. At the time of writing, backers and layers have reached an impasse at around [7.8] or, put another way, they reckon he has about a one-in-eight chance of winning come July.

What's looking certain - barring acts of God - is he will line up in the Tour. Betfair's Armstrong to Start? market is all but inactive now, with [1.03] the best available price to back. And his performances in the lead up to the race have offered ever-increasing hope he will be competitive. Although not the all-dominant athlete we are used to seeing, he looked solid in the Giro riding, as he was, in support of teammate Levi Leipheimer. Admittedly, he didn't have the killer-blow - that ability to ride away from others as they languish, unable to respond, but the Tour is still four weeks away. What the Giro has told us is that he's fit, healthy and can still handle the stresses and strains of a major tour. Whether he can regain that athletic supremacy, we will have to wait and see.

And aside from that large physical obstacle, Armstrong has some political manoeuvring to do between now and July. Alberto Contador, winner of the 2007 Tour and generally regarded as the best road racer in the world right now, also happens to be Armstrong's Astana teammate. Actually, make that team-leader. But surely there's no way Armstrong will carry out domestic duties for another rider?

Then there are Astana's financial woes. The Kazakh-backed team has salaries unpaid and the International Cycling Union is threatening to withdraw the team's pro-racing licence. The likely solution is that Armstrong will have to step in to fund the team himself. What price then that he will be prepared to ride in support of Contador?

Assessing whether the [7.8] available on Armstrong winning the Tour is value or not is, quite frankly, beyond any intelligence I'm aware of. There are just too many variables, too difficult to compute. The value though must be in opposing Contador. For a rider on the verge of being embroiled in a team reordering - which could see him leave to head-up another outfit - [2.14] is far too short.