Tour De France Betting: He couldn't, could he?

Tour De France / Jack Houghton / 18 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Jack Houghton is in a rich vein of tipping form and a win for Lance Armstrong would be the real icing on the cake. But moving away from betting for just a minute, it is worth considering just what an actual miracle it is that we are even talking about the great man being in real contention...

When you're hot, you're hot. What can I say? Seven bets recommended so far in the Tour: two settled as winners; three trading at long odds-on; one loss; and a live bet on Lance Armstrong in the Winner market at a few clips above his current odds. Next stop a premium rate phone line and advert in the Racing Post. And what for a nom-de-parier? Le Velo Noir perhaps? Yes, I like it.

Betting-wise though, whether this Tour ends up great, or merely good, will depend to a large extent on whether Armstrong wins. And although there was a little scuffle on the climb to Arcalis last week between the seven-time Tour winner and new wunderkind Contador, it told us nothing we hadn't already guessed: that the Astana Team were somewhat disunited. Whether they'll unite behind Armstrong or Contador, or find some compromise position, we'll know in the next eight days.

Even if Armstrong doesn't win though, it's worth reflecting on the stupefying and amazing situation we find ourselves in. On October 4th last year, just after Armstrong announced his comeback, I wrote about the news in all its surrealism. At the time, it seemed a little ridiculous. Wasn't this just another ageing athlete unable to adjust to life outside the sporting hullabaloo? How far would he get? Would it fizzle out before it really started? Or would Armstrong find himself in the same situation as Ali did against Holmes in 1980: embarrassed by a younger opponent?

As the weeks have passed, the story has progressed towards the most unlikely of endings. He might actually win it. There's even a line of reasoning suggesting he should be favourite to win it. Famously the most data-driven athlete of all time, Armstrong will know exactly how his cycling prowess compares to the Armstrong of old and so, the argument goes, if he's talking up his chances the way he is, it's because he likes the numbers he is seeing. It might not be watertight analysis, but it certainly makes the [4.9] on Armstrong look tempting.

What's certain is that this Tour is the most intriguing of modern times. This is thanks in large part to the route chosen. Many fans and journalists have bemoaned the non-decisive nature of the stages so far. Besides a short initial time trial, where even the most dramatic of performances was only able to illicit a few seconds of advantage in the Overall Classification; and one hilltop finish in Arcalis that could have (but didn't) prompt a significant move; the rest have either being flat, with finishes dominated by sprinters (Cavendish), or, where climbs have been involved, they've occurred early enough in stages for the peloton to regroup by stage-end. But to my mind, route organisers, whether by intent or serendipity, have painted a masterpiece: it's likely we'll only be confident of the winner after a final stage climb on the penultimate day.

What a run-in to Paris. Sunday sees riders hit the mountains again in Verbier. With a rest day after and a Category One climb at the finish, it is likely there will be at least one, if not multiple, attacks by those with designs on the Overall Classification. Two further mountain stages are ripe for further assaults. However, the final climbs on both stages are 30 and 15 kilometres from the stage ends respectively; deadening the impact any climbing attack can have. Next up a 40km individual time trial around the nearly flat surroundings of Lake Annecy. Then the final brushstroke: a stage finish on the unclassifiable Mont Ventoux; a 21km climb at an average gradient of 7.6%.

A week Sunday, when I'm stood on the Avenue des Champs-Élysées, all this will be behind the riders, and we'll know whether Armstrong is simply the greatest cyclist of all time, or just God.