Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 03 July 2009 / Leave a comment

Tobias Gourlay straps in for an exciting points competition in this year's Tour de France.

Mark Cavendish, the Manx Missile, is a [2.14] favourite to win the green points jersey because in the last 12 months he has shown himself to be the best sprinter in the world. At the recent Giro d'Italia, he won three stages, after losing one early to Alessandro Petacchi, whose team has unfortunately not been chosen to race in Le Tour.

Although he won four stages, he did not complete last year's Tour because he was withdrawn early in order to prepare for the Beijing Olympics. In winning this year's Milan-San Remo, he went some way to assuaging fears that he might not be able to cope with the biggest mountain stages.

The points classification is not just about stage wins, however. There are eight stages that should obviously be won by a sprinter. Another four wins would score big points for Cavendish, but alone might not be enough to make sure of the maillot vert (unless his rivals give up). He will need to be prepared to get involved in the bonus sprints that happen in the middle of stages.

The market has not yet adjusted to take account of the very recent news that Tom Boonen has been cleared to race for Quick Step, making it difficult to recommend Cavendish at his current price. Torpedo Tom lives fast on and off the bike, and missed last year's Tour after testing positive for cocaine, the same recreational interest that almost ruled him out of this one.

Boonen's return means the winners of the last four green jerseys will all be on the starting line for the first stage in Monaco, although there's no price available for Robbie McEwen, winner of the green jersey in 2002, 2004 and 2006, a reflection of the fact he has just turned 37.

Last year's winner, Oscar Freire ([4.5]), couldn't touch Cavendish while the Brit was still around, but showed he is capable of getting through the Alps and the Pyrenees. 2005 points champion Thor Hushovd ([9.4]) missed this year's Giro in order to concentrate on Le Tour, and is another sprinter who will keep something in the locker for the final sprint down the Champs-Elysee.

A couple of longer shots worth keeping an eye on are Leonardo Duque ([65]), who was fourth in this competition last year, and Gerald Ciolek ([48]), who was Cavendish's 'pilot fish' 12 months ago, leading out the Manxman's sprints, but now rides for Milram and is very quick in his own right.

At this point, the best way to show your support for Cavendish could well be to back him for stage wins rather than overall glory. There will be a number of opportunities to do that in the next week or so because Stages Two, Three and Five have sprint finish written all over them. An alternative strategy is laying 3 Stage Wins or Fewer ([2.08]) in the special Cavendish Stage Wins market.