Tour De France Betting: Can Wiggins account for "The Accountant"?

Tour De France / Jack Houghton / 02 July 2010 / 1 Comments

Bradley Wiggins is a great bet for a Top 3 finish

"The main overall classification play though has to be Bradley Wiggins. Starting the Tour as second-string to Vande Velde in Team Garmin-Slipstream last year, he impressed in the mountains and finished fourth overall. "

For intrigue, infighting and sheer pre-event brouhaha, the 2009 Tour De France will likely never be surpassed. Even as Alberto Contador and Lance Armstrong stood atop their respective podiums on the Champs-Élysées, no one had yet brought order to the chaotic he-said-she-said emanating from the Astana Team over the preceding three weeks. Only one thing was certain: Armstrong and Contador could not remain - however distant - in the same team any longer.

They haven't. Contador, nicknamed The Accountant, is now main-man at Astana, Armstrong at Radioshack. And the rest of the teams have a similarly familiar regularity to them. From the outset this year, we'll know who is riding for whom.

It's only Andy Schleck who confuses the picture. News that he will be leaving Saxo Bank to join a new team in 2011 has reportedly left his team manager, Bjarne Riis, fuming. So whether Andy Schleck will receive the required team support to survive the most mountainous Tour of recent years is questionable. The news certainly makes him one to swerve at his current price of [9.8].

Contador is the most likely winner of the overall classification. He's entered two Tours - winning both - and has been similarly dominant in any stage race that plays to his climbing and time-trialling strengths. What's more, he's been in sparkling form so far this year: winning the Algarve Tour and Paris-Nice stage race; prior to finishing second in a favoured warm-up event for the Tour, the Dauphiné Libéré.

But whilst the undulations of this year's Tour will undoubtedly play to his strengths, the initial flat stages - particularly a 13km section of cobbles on Stage 3 - are being slated as having the potential to end Contador's challenge long before he reaches the Alps. What's certain is that there is no value in his price ([1.62]).

Armstrong could well capitalise on any mishap to befall his Spanish nemesis. His performance last year was spectacular. Four years out of the sport and riding without the team support he's accustomed to, he was, midway through, the [4.0] second-favourite to win. Although eventually humbled on the climb to Verbier, he nonetheless muscled his way on to the podium and, another year of cycling under his belt and with a strong support team in place this time around, the [14.0] available looks generous. He certainly looks a strong bet in the Top 3 ([3.0]) and Top 6 ([1.71]) markets.

The main overall classification play though has to be Bradley Wiggins. Starting the Tour as second-string to Vande Velde in Team Garmin-Slipstream last year, he impressed in the mountains and finished fourth overall. Now unquestionably number one at the Dave Brailsford-inspired Team Sky, he looks to have everything required to meet that team's five-year Tour victory target four years' early. So the [26.0] looks massive. As does the [4.0] in the Top 3 market and [2.32] in the Top 6 market.

The brains behind Team Sky revolutionised track cycling. There's no reason Wiggins can't spearhead a similar revolution on the road.

Recommendations:

Back Wiggins and Armstrong in the win and place markets.

Comments (1)

1. Daz | 02 July 2010

   Im not sure how you can say Armstrong has had another year of cycling under his belt as he has hardly raced this year although granted his Tour Of Switzerland effort was decent but Id be shocked if he won an 8th Tour. Wiggins will be doing well to be Top 10 in what is a much tougher Tour than last year.
   I agree that Contador is too short ahead of stage 3 but then will be the time to back him as I will be shocked if he doesnt win the Tour.