Tour De France / Jack Houghton / 10 July 2009 / Leave a comment

Jack Houghton thinks the seven-time winner is a serious contender for Tour success.

Punting-wise it's been a successful start to the Tour. Fabian Cancellara obliterated the field when winning the first stage - tipped up here at [1.78] - and the other recommendations are all trading at significantly shorter odds than when advised: Astana has now halved in price; and Lance Armstrong is well placed for a podium finish that would see us collect on both advocated place bets.

Despite a favourable start though, six days in and there's still a lot to find out. Yes, Cancellara will be the dominant time-trialist throughout. Yes, Cavendish will win every sprint his team is able to deliver him at. And yes, Astana has a depth of talent and superiority over its rivals not seen before in cycling. But the question as to Armstrong's true role in that team is yet to be properly addressed.

For all the pre-Tour public relations guff that Alberto Contador was Astana's lead rider - and that Armstrong would be riding as his assistant - there has been an equal amount of backtracking since. After a solid showing in the opening time trial, Armstrong consolidated his position in the Overall Classification on Stage Three when covering a Columbia-driven peloton split that Contador missed. Followed up by a crushing Team Trial performance by Astana, Armstrong now finds himself less than a second from wearing the Yellow Jersey, currently held - for a few hours at least - by Cancellara.

True, Contador is only 19-seconds back in third - an insignificant gap at this stage of the Tour - but nonetheless, the rhetoric has changed. Within a few short days, Armstrong had moved from cap-doffing underling, to suggesting that, given Astana's strength as a team, they could perhaps support two riders fighting for the Overall Classification. Most recently, after Stage Six finished in Barcelona on Thursday evening, Armstrong suggested that he and Contador will need to sit down and discuss the leadership after the first high mountain stage on Friday.

And what high mountains. Stage Seven sees the peloton negotiate a 225km stage to Andorra Arcalis. At 2,240 metres, it's one of the highest stage finishes in Tour history. En route, by way of a warm up, they will first have to ascend the Category One Col del Serra-Seca, before tackling the formidable Arcalis itself: a climb so brutal it is defined as "beyond categorisation" in cycling's hill rating system.

It's amidst this brutality that lingering questions of team leadership will likely be answered. For all the Formula 1-esque razzamatazz of the time trials - team or individual - and the swarming excitement of flat sprinting stages; it is in the gruelling and unromantic mountain climbs that Tours are settled. A strong team can take you so far, but a rider with podium expectations has to be able to grind out the uphills. And this is where Armstrong and Contador have previously excelled.

At some point on Friday's stage there will be a moment: an attack by Armstrong, or an attack by Contador perhaps; and within a few short seconds we will know exactly what the seven-time Tour winner is bringing to this year's renewal. Having watched him over the opening days of the Tour, my money says he will be bringing plenty, and I recommend taking the profits from Cancellara's Stage One win and backing Armstrong in the Winner market at [5.1].

It's also worth having a small interest in Armstrong in the Stage Seven market at [15.0]. If he does attack Contador, it will likely happen at the end of the Arcalis climb, and depending on how far any early breakaway has got up the road, a late attack may be enough to secure a stage win.

Elsewhere in the Tour it's worth having an interest in Cavendish hoovering up a few more stage wins. With two in the bag - and six more as viable targets - splitting your stake and backing Four Stages Only at [2.8] and Five Stages or More at [2.7] in the Cavendish Stage Wins? market seems the value call at a combined price of around [1.35].

Recommendations:
Back Armstrong in Winner market at [5.4]
Back Armstrong in Stage Seven market at [15.0]
Back Four Stages Only in Cavendish Stage Wins? market at [2.8]
Back Five Stages or More in Cavendish Stage Wins? market at [2.7]