The Betfair Contrarian: Why Alberto Contador won't win the Tour de France

Tour De France / The Betfair Contrarian / 15 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

One of the Contrarian's many mottos is to always beware sports that involve mountains, but for this year's Tour de France he'll make an exception, as the bickering is just too appealing...

Three Spaniards have won the Tour in the last three years and Alberto Contador is the [1.45] favourite on Betfair to continue the trend.

The 26-year-old triumphed two years ago but wasn't allowed to defend his title in 2008 because his team Astana were banned. Contador will be confident of picking up where he left off but his team-mate, the returning seven-time champion and prickly individual Lance Armstrong [5.2], stands in his way. Here's why the Contrarian is steering clear of the 2007 winner:

Favourites haven't done well recently...

Since Armstrong's retirement in 2005, nobody has stood out as being head and shoulders above the competition. Therefore, it's no surprise that the pre-race favourites in the last three races have all failed to deliver. 2006 frontrunners Ivan Basso and Jan Ullrich were both suspended before the race because of their involvement in a doping investigation and none of the other leading contenders Alejandro Valverde, Floyd Landis, Levi Leipheimer and Cadel Evans finished in the top three. 2007 favourite Alexander Vinokourov withdrew in another doping scandal but the main man in the betting who completed the race, Valverde, only finished sixth. Last year Evans was the favourite and he had to settle for second.

Regaining the title so quickly is tough...

Fifty-six men have won the Tour de France and of those 19 have triumphed on more than one occasion. Ten of those picked up their second title the following year, while a surprisingly high six have done so three years later. However, just two of the 19 multiple-time champions (10.5%) secured their second victory two years after their first: Frenchmen Andre Leducq (1930 and 1932) and Bernard Thevenet (1975 and 1977). In the 31 years since Thevenet's second success just one man has won the Tour de France, been dethroned and then regained the title in a three year period. That was Bernard Hinault, another Frenchman - between 1979 and 1981.

It's not good to be second after stage 10...

Contador is second in the general classification after stage ten, just six seconds behind current yellow jersey holder Rinaldo Nocentini [750]. However, over the last 13 years just one man has won having been second at this point and that was Armstrong halfway through his period of dominance in 2002. The last five cyclists who were second after 10 stages all failed to finish in the top five, with two not even making the top 50.

Nocentini can't be completely ignored...

It's widely expected that current leader Nocentini will drift away in the latter stages and leave Contador and Armstrong to fight for the title but despite his huge odds, the Italian shouldn't be written off completely. Six of the last 13 leaders at this point in the race have held their nerve and gone on to win the whole thing.

Armstrong hasn't lost since 1996...

Armstrong's record in the Tour de France is phenomenal. The last time he entered the race without winning was in 1996 and that was because he had to withdraw with illness not long into the event. The American returned three years later to pick up his first win proving that his recent absence is no reason to write him off and won seven in succession before announcing his retirement in 2005.

...and hell come to life in the latter stages

When Contador leapfrogged his Astana team-mate Armstrong in stage seven, it was treated as a defining moment in this year's race. However, the reality is that the 37-year-old will be pretty pleased to be just two seconds behind the Spaniard and eight seconds behind Nocentini at this point. There have been two previous occasions this decade where Armstrong hasnt been in the top two after 10 stages and both times he has excelled in the second half. In 2001, he was fourth and 20.07 seconds behind but won three of the remaining stages to come out on top while in 2004, he was down in sixth but won five stages from that point onwards to triumph.