The Perfect Punter / Perfect Punter / 19 August 2009 /

The Perfect Punter works a shift with ex-footballer and professional commentator Gary O'Reilly who teaches him what to look out for in the early stages of a football match with a view to tackling the over/under 2.5 goals market.

Sometimes you feel your age in an instant, and it happens at the unlikeliest times. As the Premier League started its long march last weekend, we had a work experience kid in our production office, and he didn't seem nearly as grateful to be there as he ought to have been.

Not many people get the chance to come and watch how football is beamed overseas, and yet all this rather obnoxious teenager did was to eat cold pizza and smell curiously of milk. Whenever an ex-player walked through the room, I found myself trying desperately to impress on him who these people were. That they were a link to what he was watching on the television, and that the likes of Paul Walsh, Efan Ekoku, John Gregory and Paul Parker all played for their countries, and were once stars themselves.

He'd heard of Walsh, and recognised Gregory, but that was about it. He munched his Margherita, he gave off his gold top waft, and my day ticked by second by endless second. And then Gary O'Reilly walked in, and I summoned up one last surge of enthusiasm: "Now then Paul (I'm calling him Paul, but he made such a tiny impression on me that I'd forgotten his name the minute he walked out of the door), this is Gary, and he scored in an FA Cup Final. Can you imagine? An FA Cup Final? Why don't you ask him what that felt like?"

Milkboy looked O'Reilly up and down and said to me: "You're lying, I don't recognise him. There is no way that he scored in an FA Cup Final. Who did he play for? What? Crystal Palace? They've never even been to a Cup Final." At that point, I gave up, and realised that 1990 really was that long ago.

O'Reilly is one of my favourite pundits. He's not heard nearly as much as he should be, but he's one of those different drummer people, who never states the obvious, and always commentates as if he cares, but that deep down he knows how ridiculous all of the hullabaloo really is.

With apologies to CLR James, what do they know of football who only football know? One of the mainstays of trying to become the Perfect Punter is that sporting "givens" have to be challenged, and we have to learn from those who really know what they're talking about. I was interested to hear from O'Reilly, as a central defender, just what we should look for in terms of over and under 2.5 goal punting when one of the Premier League powerhouses plays a smaller team. It always strikes me that under 2.5 goals is massively overpriced when, say, Manchester United are at home to Birmingham, or Chelsea are at home to Hull.

O'Reilly was on the pitch when Crystal Palace lost 9-0 to Liverpool, and so he knows a thing or two about the ways that top teams use to break down inferior opposition: "The first thing that I'd ask myself when I watch the game is do they have someone who can see the world in five lines? If they do, then I'm worried. Then I know that we could be in trouble. They can make the central defenders play facing their own goal, and when that happens, then you will get goals."

The five lines reference is to Picasso's painting "The Dove of Peace", in which five charcoal lines, simply drawn, make up one iconic image. In Holland, Denis Bergkamp's lines of passing have often been compared to the work of Dutch architects, as a combination of seemingly simple angles leads to something far more complex. I appreciate that we're sailing very close to unbearable pretension here, but give me that over anodyne analysis any day, and the central point is valid.

As far as O'Reilly is concerned, United have lost two "five lines" players in Ronaldo and Tevez, Arsenal have them in abundance, Joe Cole and Deco provide the key to Chelsea's on field wit, and most interestingly, Liverpool will struggle without their little Picasso, Xabi Alonso.

As this series progresses, we'll talk a lot more about in-running punting on over and under 2.5 goals, but this is a good starting point. Watch the game for ten or fifteen minutes (nowhere near enough of us do that) and watch the weaker team's defenders, and only them. Are they being turned? Are they being dragged out wide and out of position? Does it look as if, in one on one match ups, that the centre backs can come close to handling their strikers? And does the stronger team have a player with the ability to see those lines that no one else can and pick the lock?

You'll have to take my word for this, but I was commentating with O'Reilly on the Manchester United game on Sunday and asked him to wait ten minutes, and then give me the thumbs up or thumbs down for over or under 2.5 goals. He watched, saw what he wanted, and assuredly gave me the thumbs down. Between now and the World Cup next summer, I'm going to pick the brains of as many people who really know what they're talking about as possible, and we should all listen, whether teenagers know who they are or not.

You can follow The Perfect Punter on Twitter, and pick up daily nuggets and tips from everyone that he meets. He'll be in Siena on Saturday night to watch Milan's first game post Ancelotti and Kaka. And will be posting team news and tips just before the game. Go to www.twitter.com/perfectpunter and sign up.

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