The Perfect Punter: Chapter Ten - Use Occam's razor to reach the most logical conclusion possible

The Perfect Punter / Perfect Punter / 14 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Portrait of an unsurprisingly clean-shaven Ockam.

“Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem”

In Chapter Ten the Perfect Punter dusts off the cobwebs from his fourteenth century books to find a character whose words are still very relevant to our betting in the 21st century.

The fourteenth century is an odd place for a column about gambling to start, although seeing as your correspondent found himself face to face with an ageing labia a few weeks ago, I hope you realise that seemingly barren ground can prove to be fruitful. (Not the most tasteful analogy, but bear with me.)

William Ockham was a Franciscan friar and philosopher, at a time when those two job titles really didn't sit comfortably. He was astonishingly brave in refusing to withdraw his stated beliefs about the lives of Jesus and his Apostles, but it's for a theory which was appropriated to him centuries later for which he is best known, and (in case you were wondering) is of great relevance to us. It was only in the 19th century that the term "Occam's razor", which drew heavily on William's teachings as well as misspelling his name, was coined in philosophical circles, and its fundamental message is one which us gamblers should all have tattooed on our foreheads.

There are two versions of Occam's razor: the first states that "plurality ought never be posited without necessity" and more easily understood is the one which is written rather gauchely at the side of this column in Latin. It translates as: "entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily." The theory is habitually used in science, and enforces the belief that nature is simple, therefore simplicity is practical, and so if there are two different solutions to a problem on offer, then the wise course is to take the simple route. Don't complicate things when they don't need to be complicated, and make best use of the data which is staring you in the face. The theory is called "Occam's razor" for a reason: the razor shaves away every idea that is superfluous, and allows us to reach the most logical conclusion possible.

The reason that William's teachings are so worth remembering is that we are bombarded with advice on punting, both on this admirable website and in the excellent Racing Post. Some of the advice is well worth listening to, and some not, and if you haven't already done so then you need to work out which tipsters work for you and which don't. I have my favourites who I'm not going to name for obvious reasons, but regular followers of the Perfect Punter on Twitter and indeed readers of this column will know that one of them, for example, has the initials JE and knows a thing or two about French Football. Follow him religiously, don't deviate from the path, and you will end the season in profit.

It's impossible for any of us to deal with every single piece of information that comes our way and then reach a logical conclusion. If you want to keep your own counsel, let that be your strategy. If you want to be an acolyte of Kevin Pullein or Graham Cunningham, then I wouldn't put you off. But don't overcomplicate your gambling plan, listen to those who you value and who help keep punting simple, and then be very clear about what you're going to do on a day's racing or a Champions League matchnight.

It's all part of not just working out what is going to happen, but making best use of that knowledge and converting it into profit. I've lost count of the number of weekends when, with a combination of my own knowledge and analysis of those tipsters that I like, I've made a profit, only to blow half of it on a bet which comes from another source: a ill thought out tip on the horses, or a lazy conclusion drawn from an article that I've read about a subject that I haven't properly researched. I'm still in profit, but deeply frustrated at the same time. Use the razor to shave away the unnecessary bets, and stick with the core knowledge, the well thought out information that will keep you sane, and in profit.

And hand in hand with that analyse which areas that you are successful in, and which you aren't. I've been looking back at my punting over the past year, and there are bets with which I'm almost constantly in profit, and ones which I'm nearly always not. If you look honestly at what makes you money and what doesn't, you'll be surprised. Again, take a razor to those areas of punting which black and white analysis tells you cost you money, and stick with the strategies that pay off. It's harder to do than it sounds, it needs you to keep shaving away the superfluous information on any given gambling day, but it has to pay dividends in the long run. If there is a dividing line between those of us who punt for fun, and those who do it professionally, then that line will look an awful lot like Occam's razor.

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