Snooker / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 April 2011 /

Here it is, the match Paul Krishnamurty has been waiting for, Ricky Walden versus Rory McLeod! Why? Well it's a must-win tie for one and that makes for a top betting opportunity

With nothing less than victory required to keep his hopes of retaining a spot in the elite top-16 alive, Ricky Walden must have been delighted to see the Crucible draw. In Rory McLeod, he faces a 40 year-old journeyman who has repeatedly fallen woefully short on several previous appearances in front of the TV cameras.

McLeod is obviously capable of better than suggested by the televised evidence, or else he wouldn't have been able to carve out a professional career. He has previously won the Masters qualifying event and knocked in a tournament 147. Moreover, just reaching the last-32 of any ranking event represents an achievement. Yet every time he's reached this stage, Mcleod has looked hopelessly out of his depth. With no reason to expect substantial improvement, Walden rates my first-round banker at [1.57].

Whereas Rory's scope for improvement is limited at best, Ricky is one of the more capable outsiders at Sheffield. He has won a ranking title, beating no less than Ronnie O'Sullivan in the final of the 2008 Shanghai Masters. Indeed Walden hasn't looked overawed in previous matches against the top players, and emerged with a degree of credit when losing his sole previous match at the Crucible to Mark Selby in 2009.

Of all the first round matches, this is the one I've been waiting for. The plan is to back Walden in three different ways - to win the match at [1.55], to beat a 1.5 frame handicap at [1.75], and then in a couple of correct scores to win 10-4 and 10-5, at odds that combine to around [6.4].

Recommended Bets
Ricky Walden to win @ [1.55] (vs Mcleod)
Ricky Walden to win handicap (-1.5 frames) @ [1.75]
Ricky Walden to win 10-4 @ [15.0]
Ricky Walden to win 10-5 @ [11.0]

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