World Snooker Daily Tips: Ignore the Ronnie hype machine

Snooker / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Murphy is a big price to get the better of O'Sullivan

"Looking back over the past six renewals, (starting in 2005 when Murphy improved out of all recognition), the Yorkshireman has won more matches here - 17 to Ronnie's 15. In fact, Murphy's record confirms this is easily his favourite tournament of the year."

Shaun Murphy is great value to topple the inconsistent genius that is Ronnie O'Sullivan, argues Paul Krishnamurty, who offers a selection of ways to get against the crowd favourite

It's the same story every year. Ronnie O'Sullivan arrives in Sheffield with his game under a cloud. Punters wonder whether he can be trusted, whether his mind will be on the job. Then he's drawn against a vastly inferior first-round opponent and snooker's most naturally talented player turns on the style. His price duly shortens up, and even world-class opponents are afforded the status of big outsiders against him.

Yet time and again, Ronnie's first round brilliance has proved to be a false dawn. Ultimately, Ronnie is so good in amongst the balls that if you give him several chances per frame, he is bound to look impressive. The likes of Dominic Dale are always going to offer those chances, making such one-sided matches almost irrelevant as a formguide. Of course the same argument could be made of Shaun Murphy's easy opening win over Marcus Campbell, but he isn't the odds-on favourite.

Rather than reading too much into those results, it makes better sense to look at both men's respective form over this latest season, and in recent World Championships. On both counts, Murphy shouldn't be the outsider. Murphy is seventh in the provisional world rankings, three places ahead of O'Sullivan. Murphy reached the final of the recent Championship League, and won the Players Tour Championship finals plus another European event. In contrast, Ronnie's sole success this season came in the event he always dominates due to the ideal shot-clock format, the Premier League.

Perhaps more significantly, Murphy has a superior recent Crucible record. Looking back over the past six renewals, (starting in 2005 when Murphy improved out of all recognition), the Yorkshireman has won more matches here - 17 to Ronnie's 15. In fact, Murphy's record confirms this is easily his favourite tournament of the year. During that spell, he's been champion, runner-up and reached five quarter-finals. Even when he has lost in Sheffield, the margin has tended to be very close. Ali Carter beat him 13-12 in last year's quarter-final, Mark Selby produced one of the great Crucible comebacks to deny him 17-16 in the 2007 semi.

It all points to cracking value. I wouldn't deter anybody from taking the [2.7] about Murphy winning the match, or [20.0] to win the tournament. However, the very best value in my view lies on the handicap, where Shaun can be backed at [1.9] to win 11 frames. That at least allows for another heartbreaking close defeat.

Recommended Bet
Shaun Murphy (+2.5 frames) @ [1.91]