Snooker Betting Market Focus: Will there be a new champion this year?

World Snooker Championship Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 April 2008 / 1 Comments

Nine former champions and the vagaries of the draw lead Paul Krishnamurty to suspect a player with Crucible 'previous' will lift the trophy again

In total there are nine previous champions in the field, three of whom are strong contenders and only Steve Davis plus perhaps Graeme Dott can be completely written off. There are also three strong contenders who haven't won a World title yet, plus a further five plausible outsiders trading at [50.0] or below.

As you'd expect given those stats, this market is virtually level-pegging with 'Yes' slightly odds against. It cannot be argued that the odds here are statistically 'wrong', because they simply represent the combined odds of each player. However, it is possible to form a judgement based on an examination of the draw, which in my view suggests 'No' is the value.

My reasoning is that I confidently expect one of the former champions to reach the final via the top-half of the draw. Ronnie O'Sullivan is the overwhelming favourite in this half, but if he were to be defeated the chances are it will come at the hands of another former champion, either Mark Williams, Ken Doherty or most likely defending champion John Higgins.

The only short-priced player in this half is Ding Junhui, who I consider to be vastly over-rated. Yes, he has bundles of talent but his record simply doesn't stand up in comparison to the other leading contenders. Since January 2007, he's reached just one semi-final, and that in a low-grade round-robin event in Malta. Besides Ding, new champion backers will be looking to the bottom half for their best hopes in the form of either Mark Selby or Stephen Maguire.

If O'Sullivan emerges from that top half of the draw, his odds in the final would certainly be shorter than the current [1.83] for no new champion. Even against the worst possible opponent, Higgins would barely be higher. Ideally though I'd like the opportunity to 'green up' before the final. And there's every chance that this will be possible, should either Shaun Murphy or Peter Ebdon emerge from the third quarter.

The favourite in their quarter is Selby, but only marginally so. In order to reach the semis, Selby may well have to get past both Ebdon and Murphy, with the latter representing a particularly tough obstacle. It would be a re-run of last year's classic semi between the pair, when Selby won a late-night decider after Murphy looked to have the game sewn up. If they meet again, I'd make it a toss of a coin job.

Selection:

N0 @ [1.8]

Comments (1)

1. Mike Norman | 17 April 2008

   There may well be a new World Champion this year....

   And it could well be Stephen Maguire. The Scot couldn't have wished for a better draw and he is in by far the easiest quarter. Yes he could well meet the talented Aussie Neil Robertson in round two, but for me, that's as tough as it will get for him until the Semi-Final.

   At current odds of 8.6, Maguire represents an excellent trading opportunity, as if he gets to the SF (as I expect him to), then he will be around 2.8, 3.0 depending on which players are still there.

   The other fascinating aspect of the draw is the amount of big name players that could have fell by the wayside by the time round two is concluded.

   Even if they get through their round one ties, we could have a round two line-up of Higgins v Day, Din Junhui v Hendry, Ronnie v Williams, Stephen Lee v Doherty etc - so that's four of the more fancied players out already.

   Two other players who will be delighted with their draw are Shaun Murphy and Mark Selby. They should have easy passages to the QF where they should meet.

   I think a Maguire/Selby or a Maguire/Murphy SF is a distinct possibility.

   Of the outsiders, I'm a big fan of Ryan Day and I've been impressed with his play of late. He will have a tough round two tie against either Higgins or Stevens but he has the ability to come through it on the day (pardon the pun).

   Therefore my three against the field will be Ryan Day, Shaun Murphy and Steven Maguire, with a strong bet on Maguire to win his quarter.

   Good luck.