World Snooker Championship Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Like his Betting.Betfair colleague David Hendon, Paul Krishnamurty believes that John Higgins can edge a tight classic...

Its been four years since we last saw a really close, nerve-jangling world snooker final, when Shaun Murphy edged out Matthew Stevens 18-16, but I think we could have one to rival that for drama this time. Punters are finding it hard to split Murphy and John Higgins, currently trading at [2.1] and [1.9] respectively, and its very hard to argue with that assessment.

There's no question for me that these have been the best two players over the last fortnight. Not only have they consistently produced high-quality one-visit snooker, knocking in 19 centuries between them, but both men have more than proved their mettle under pressure at the business end of matches. Higgins' late comebacks against Selby and Cope, plus Murphy's finish against Robertson last night, were almost perfect in their execution, despite the most intense pressure.

My money is on Higgins to edge a very tight encounter. I can't separate them on potting or break-building, but Higgins must be favourite to win the safety battles, as he would against anybody. And while Murphy's form from the second round onwards is very solid, I think the quality of Higgins' matches have been of a slightly higher standard.

However, I'd be very surprised if either player totally dominated this final. As we saw in both semis, momentum can shift dramatically over these marathon four session matches, enabling the unlikeliest of comebacks and causing untold carnage in the betting. A game like this, between two closely matched players whose form is liable to even out over the best of 35 frames, usually offers plenty of in-running trading value for those looking to lay the leader in the hope of a turnaround.

Back high, lay low will be my strategy in-running, but pre-match I recommend a series of correct scores on Higgins to win 18-14, 18-15, 18-16 and 18-17 at odds that combine to around [3.6].