World Snooker Championship Betting / Jack Houghton / 30 April 2009 /

Jack Houghton's played the Crucible odds all wrong and only John Higgins can save him now...

The thing I've always said about Ronnie O'Sullivan is this: he can't be relied on. No matter what the price, given his uncertain temperament, he's a man to be avoided. Pah! At least that's what I should of thought. Instead, I rowed in with the Rocket and am now looking at my worst snooker tournament book since Shaun Murphy won the World title back in 2005.

It's not as if the poor decisions ended when I backed Ronnie. I'd also had a small interest in Stephen Hendry at a ridiculously large [70.0], and was feeling quite smug after his 147. The old guy was back, no mistake, and as he went on to win title number eight, the profit from supporting him would cover the outlay on Ronnie many times over. Just as I was thinking this, Murphy started playing better than he's played since he last caused major upset to my betting balance: and the Hendry punt was no more.

So I'm left with a miniscule interest in John Higgins at [15.0], who had the good grace to actually win a match - a seeming novelty for any player carrying my support this year - and, if he goes on to lift the title, this World Championship will still likely be a loser for me; albeit nowhere near the magnitude it might have been. But if I'm honest, all confidence is lost - and I'm seriously considering trading out of the Higgins bet now. I need to rescue something from the tournament, just something.

Actually, it's not all been bad. I've made a fair bit in trading the Next Frame markets this year. Those who have followed the advice laid down here before last year's tournament will know that adopting a conservative approach to betting in these markets - where you oppose the general market overreactions whenever someone is midway through a break - can yield small but consistent profits.

The strategy has remained sound this year, but not to the same extent as previous years. Many more players are winning frames in the fabled "one visit" so beloved by moronic commentators like Willie Thorne and, in some matches - like Selby versus Higgins - I've actually showed an overall loss trading each of the frames; an unusual occurrence.

Perhaps the standard of break building this year - across all competitors - has been unusually high? The already record number of centuries would suggest it to be so. However, more likely is that the tables are just playing easier. At one point last night, after the cessation of the seventh losing Next Frame market in a row for me, I even came up with a conspiracy theory... If I were head honcho of World Snooker - and, let's face it, it can't be long until I get the call - and I were trying to implement strategies to increase the public interest in the game, what better way to do this than having a quiet word in the ear of the table manufacturer: "Bigger pockets please?"

The fact I was dreaming up conspiracy theories of this nature perhaps demonstrates the pathetic punting position I find myself in this year. What I need to do is take the emotion out of the equation and refocus. But if I'm honest, I'm struggling. It might be time for me to log out of my Betfair snooker account for this season and focus all of my attention on swearing at Willie every time he starts one of his interminable diatribes. Which, let's face it, will keep me plenty busy until this thing is over.

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