World Championship Snooker Betting: Day three tips

Match previews / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty believes that the under-rated Marco Fu is in a different class to Joe Swail...

'The Outlaw' Joe Swail has enjoyed some memorable moments at the Crucible, but at this stage in their respective careers, he looks markedly inferior to this year's first-round opponent, Marco Fu. That differential can be seen most clearly in the world rankings. Swail is comfortably outside the world's top-16 in 22nd place, whereas Fu is up to No.7.

Since reaching his second consecutive semi-final in 2001, the popular Northern Irishman has won only three of nine matches at Sheffield, and it's a long time since he started a tournament as anything other than a rank outsider. He did reach the final of this year's Welsh Open before losing to Ali Carter, though I felt his progress owed as much to a tasty draw and some terrible performances from some of his opponents. It may be that the market has over-estimated that effort.

In contrast, Fu looks a plausible candidate to win this year's title after the best couple of seasons of his career. The most reliable formguide for this premiere event of the snooker season is the UK Championships, as its the only other event where matches are played over long distances. In the latest renewal, Fu only lost the final in a deciding frame.

In my view, this should be a comfortable win for the [1.54] favourite. Rather than simply playing the outright market though, preference is for [1.85] about Fu giving up 1.5 frames on the handicap.

Selection:

Marco Fu (-1.5 frames) v Joe Swail @ [1.85]