Match previews / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 April 2009 /

The defending champion's progress may not be in doubt but Paul Krishnamurty believes that the correct score markets offer a value way of backing Ronnie.

The opening day of the World Championship has seen many memorable upsets involving defending champions over the years, and the architect of one of the greatest shocks of all has a chance to make history repeat itself on Saturday.

Back in 2000 on his Crucible debut, Stuart Bingham stunned the snooker world by knocking out the seven times champ Stephen Hendry, and at [8.4] he is around the same odds to repeat the trick against Ronnie O'Sullivan.

Besides those historical parallels though, its hard to make any sort of case on the formbook for Bingham. The fact that this pair are practice partners may add some edge to the match, but I'd be more inclined to think that familiarity might ensure Bingham finds it hard to overcome an inferiority complex against his vastly superior opponent.

Nevertheless, at [1.14], nobody's going to get rich backing the Rocket. In fact, punters prepared to take that type of short odds about such an unreliable character will probably end up in a poorhouse sooner or later. Thankfully for those of us looking for a bet, the 'correct score' market offers a value alternative.

I can't see Bingham winning, or seriously threatening O'Sullivan, but Ronnie plays in such a way that his opponents tend to snatch a few frames. Last year, for example, qualifier Liu Chuang lost 10-5 to the Rocket. My advice is to back a combination of 10-4, 10-5 and 10-6, which equates to around [2.4]. That strikes me as a very plausible way of taking odds-against about a short odds-on 'certainty'.

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