Crucible Odds: The pick of the first round betting

Match previews / Paul Krishnamurty / 16 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

Snooker punter Paul Krishnamurty has scrutinised the Sheffield odds to come up with these first round gems

Mark Williams v Mark Davis

As he desperately fights for his top-32 place and effectively his career, twice-champion Williams represents my first round banker. I don't hold out much serious hope that Williams can return to his best after such a long spell in the doledrums, but he couldn't have asked for an easier opponent for this crunch match than Mark Davis. Ranked outside the top-32, journeyman Davis has never reached further than the quarters of any ranking event. On his sole appearance at Sheffield seven years ago, Davis was comfortably eliminated in the first round.

Last year's first-round exit was a disaster for Williams, though it came when he was at his lowest ebb. Previously, even when below his best he'd been more used to trouncing lesser opponents in the early round. In 2005 and 2006 first rounds, for instance, he beat both Robert Milkins and Anthony Hamilton 10-1. In my view, Davis is a weaker opponent than either, and a similar thrashing is on the cards.

Plus, to be fair to Williams, he has shown some improvement and determination in recent tournaments. As well as backing the handicap, I'm having a trio of one-sided correct scores.

Selections:
Mark Williams (-2.5 frames) @ [2.0]
Correct scores: Williams 10-2, 10-3, 10-4

* * *

Ding Junhui v Marco Fu

In this tight, all-Chinese affair, one of the players has won a ranking tournament this season, reached another prestigious semi, beat Ronnie O'Sullivan in his last tournament and has plenty of Crucible form. The other was trounced on his only previous Sheffield visit, and has made just the one semi-final in his last thirteen ranking events. Guess which one starts as favourite?

I wrote in another article that Ronnie is the most over-rated player in the game, but on reflection that award must go to Ding Junhui. Ever since emerging as a gifted teenager people have been describing Ding as the game's next big star. Rather like previous Asian exports such as Wattana, and indeed Fu when he first came on the scene, Ding has failed to make any substantial progress towards those lofty predictions. And he has looked a shadow of his teenage self since losing the plot in the 2007 Masters final at Wembley, driven to tears by a hostile crowd and a humiliating thrashing at Ronnie's hands.

In fairness, it must be very tough for Asian players to compete at their best on a tour that spends virtually the whole year in Europe. Understandably, it may take time to settle and managing a schedule can't be easy. This may explain Fu's belated emergence. In previous world championships, Fu has knocked out Ronnie and missed out on the 2006 final by just one frame. After his best season to date, Marco has real prospects and looks a massive price at 2.5 here.

Selection:
Marco Fu to win @ [2.5]

* * *

Mark Allen v Stephen Hendry

This one has the makings of a classic. Two attacking players, one the greatest player ever to pick up a cue, a seven-time world champion barely clinging to his reputation, the other one of the game's rising stars. Strong preference is for the younger man.

Ulsterman Allen brought some vocal support for his Crucible debut last year, and lit up the opening rounds with some impressive heavy scoring. After knocking out Doherty in the first round, he also played well in defeat to Matthew Stevens. He reached his first ranking tournament semi-final earlier this season, and has looked in good touch in the recent Champions League.

In contrast, Hendry retains his talent but rarely shows it. He cuts a disinterested figure nowadays, especially in the longer matches and I wonder how long it will be before he disappears from the upper echelons of the game. Perhaps this intriguing contest will capture the Scot's imagination, but I'm convinced Allen's form over the season is better. Having played so well on his debut, I could see Allen going on a longer run this time.

Selection:
Mark Allen to win @ [2.0]


* * *

Stuart Bingham v Steve Davis

Bingham provided the shock of the tournament back in 2000 when knocking out Stephen Hendry in the first round. Eight years down the line, the Essex player has been presented with another golden opportunity to quickly extinguish the Crucible hopes of a serial former world champ, though the odds this time against Steve Davis are a tiny fraction in comparison. In fact it will anything but an upset, as Davis has never beaten Bingham in four attempts.

Still, 1.66 seems pretty fair unless Davis can miraculously improve on pretty much all his snooker this season. Bingham is no mug by any means, capable of producing high-class fluent snooker at his best and one of the livelier outsiders. I expect him to score too heavily for Davis here, and maintain his 100% record over the Nugget.

Selection:
Stuart Bingham @ [1.66]