Betfair | Crucible Betting 2008: Forget likeability, it's reliability that punters crave

Crucible Betting 2008: Forget likeability, it's reliability that punters crave

When it comes to snooker betting, Paul Krishnamurty wants solidity and professionalism over flair and character

What is it about snooker that makes likeability and popularity a permanent factor in the betting? Asides the occasional patriotic fervour that grips English football supporters, I can't think of another sport where the market so consistently over-rates and under-rates players in equal measure.

I doubt it would be possible to find a single player at the top of their sport who is so consistently over-rated than Ronnie O'Sullivan, who starts favourite for every event he starts and yet very rarely wins them. He's actually slightly bigger than usual this year, at [4.7], a slowly emerging reaction to that persistent failure. But considering he's won just one ranking event in three years, I'm surprised any of his regular supporters have any money left. In this event, he's traded below [2.5] for the last three years, well before failing to even reach the final. Unforgivably, on two of those occasions the defeat was mainly a consequence of what have become all too frequent mid-match emotional crises.

The explanation is obvious. Widely accepted as the most naturally talented player in the world and one of the all-time greats, Ronnie is the closest snooker has to a "Peoples' Champion"' since the days of Higgins and White. Supporters remember his mesmerising performances, his 147 breaks, and how he blew away all opposition here in 2004. Rather than considering the statistical likelihood of a repeat, they prefer to let their hearts rule their head on the grounds that 'at his best, Ronnie wins'. Of course there is some truth in this, except good gambling is about odds, value and probability. No doubt Ronnie represents the most extreme example of this, but Jimmy too was often far too short.

This argument works the other way around too. Time and again, consistent and reliable snooker players are given scant respect because much of the betting public either dislikes them personally or their style of play. Again going back, the supposedly 'dour' Steve Davis and Stephen Hendry were always backable at odds-against despite being virtually unbeatable and incomparably more reliable than O'Sullivan.

And most recently, I vividly recall the widespread complaints about the 'boring' 2006 final between Graeme Dott and Peter Ebdon. That such an occasion deserved better, faster, more fluent players who preferably had more charisma too. An attitude that utterly bemused me - as a punter, why should I care about such froth? I just want to be on the winner!

I should declare my interest here - I was never going to find that match boring as I'd backed them at [80.0] and [50.0] pre-tournament. But without singing my own praises both, especially given favourable draws, were obvious value bets at those odds. Ebdon a former champion, Crucible specialist and better over the longer matches. Dott, a finalist two years previously, a regular and reliable member of the top-16. When Dott came up against Ronnie in the semi-final, the Scot was an incredible [6.0] to win that single match, despite Ronnie's long history of inconsistency and near breakdown the previous year. Some of us weren't in the least shocked when O'Sullivan effectively threw the towel in during the third session against the slow, gritty Dott.

Onto this year then, if Ronnie is the over-rated one, who is the player the public hate to love, the one who punters will only back through gritted teeth? The player who closest fits this profile is the 2005 champion Shaun Murphy, currently trading at a mouthwatering [10.0] even after being handed the easiest first round match imaginable. As a local lad who has won a world title already and improved plenty since, I'd have assumed he'd be a very popular selection and close to favouritism. Yet his odds don't look like shortening much, as they never seem to until the latter stages.

So why is this the case? It can't be anything to do with stats. Murphy is provisionally ranked world number one, has reached at least the semi-final in six from eight ranking events this season including a win in the Malta Cup. Moreover from a betting perspective, he's traded at less than [3.0] in eight of his last 11 ranking events. Rather I think it stems from his perceived lack of personality, of likeability. Its not so much that he wears his religion on his sleeve - though that doesn't help - rather that some people think he comes across a bit smug, a little too self-assured and controlled. Not unlike Davis all those years ago. Once again though, why should I care? My message to Shaun - Keep doing what you're doing, whatever makes you play best. And I'll keep backing you all the way.