O'Sullivan's Crucible Odds: Tough draw makes defending champ Ronnie a must lay

World Snooker Championship Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 15 April 2009 / 1 Comments

Paul Krishnamurty sees no value in backing O'Sullivan from the outset at the Crucible. But if you're determined to get behind the champ there is another way of doing it...

The momentum is already underway, with the odds about punters' favourite and defending champion Ronnie O'Sullivan already into just [3.35], the shortest he's ever been before the start of a World Championship. It would seem that, with last year's effortless victory still fresh in the mind, Ronnie has been forgiven his numerous past misdemeanours. Those of us with a longer memory remain sceptical.

For while nobody doubts that he is the worthy favourite, he remains the same unreliable, temperamental player that has turned over odds-on backers more times than they'd care to remember. As usual, Ronnie peaked in the Masters on home turf and in the shorter format of the Premier League, but he's looked distinctly beatable in other events this season. Most memorably in the second most prestigious tournament; the UK Championship; O'Sullivan effectively gave up against Joe Perry because things weren't going his way.

That sort of thing has happened too many times over the years to ever make him a good value bet at a very short price. Remember, he will have to win six matches to win the World Championship. There must be a massive chance that at some stage during one of those matches he will drift to his current price to win the whole tournament - ([3.35]) - just to progress to the next round, let alone win the title. And that eventuality looks even more likely when examining Ronnie's route to the final.

His opening match against sometimes practice partner Stuart Bingham should be fairly straightforward, but after that it looks like tough opponents all the way. Ronnie's probable last-16 opponent is Mark Allen, one of the best up and coming talents in the game. Allen has made a big impact on both previous Crucible visits to date, and I'm expecting this one to be a classic, full of attacking snooker and big breaks, with a close outcome.

Ronnie's most likely quarter-final opponents are Ryan Day or Peter Ebdon. Once again, he'll be a short price whoever he faces, but no certainty. Day remains an extremely talented under-achiever, but more than capable on his day. He knocked out the defending champion last year, and ran Ronnie close in a previous Crucible encounter. If Ebdon, winner of the recent China Open, is the opponent, it will be a re-run of their infamous 2005 quarter-final, when Crucible specialist Ebdon wore down Ronnie with his slow play.

Assuming the draw pans out as expected, Ronnie would then be faced with a semi-final that most would consider a worthy final, against either Mark Selby or John Higgins. Whichever one of them it is, the betting will be fairly close. Selby has fought out some classic, close finals with Ronnie over the last couple of seasons, while his rivalry with Higgins goes back to the last decade. Most recently, Higgins eliminated O'Sullivan from the last event in China, and won their last Crucible encounter in the 2007 quarter-finals.

If he comes through all that lot to reach the final, the most dangerous opponent would be Stephen Maguire. By that stage though, there must be a danger that Ronnie will be jaded after some hard matches.

But even if you're a hardened Ronnie fan, and determined to back him, consider the following. If the draw pans out as I've suggested, and you backed Ronnie to win each match individually, accumulating the stakes after each round, I reckon the minimum odds of him winning all six matches are around [4.6]. On that basis, 3.35 must rate one of the worst value bets of all time.

Comments (1)

1. Ian Lamont | 16 April 2009

   Totally agree, Ronnie has been far too short a price to back for too long. Selby and Higgins would be shorter if they were in the other half of the draw, which must give opportunity to players like Ali Carter, Shaun Murphy, Ding Junhui, Neil Robertson and even Marco Fu, who is big at 38s. Get the right one(s) and there will be hedgable chances to the final, making a profit whoever wins