Betfair | Is O'Sullivan a worthy 4.0 favourite for Crucible glory?

Is O'Sullivan a worthy 4.0 favourite for Crucible glory?

Paul Krishnamurty doesn't doubt the Rocket's ability to turn it on when it matters but wonders whether with question marks over his temperament and desire, he should be the [4.0] jolly....

During the usual fawning TV commentary throughout Ronnie O'Sullivan's performance, there was persistent reference to the fact that he is super fit at the moment since starting to take his running more seriously. That may well be so, and at least consequently he won't tire physically over these long matches at the Crucible, but any seasoned Ronnie-watcher knows its not his physical fitness that should be of concern.

The question Betfairians really need answering concerns the state of mind, his attitude. In short, whether he will properly compete over the next couple of weeks or whether he will lose the plot at some stage (yet again). And on the evidence of a laboured opening round match, the signs don't look very promising for punters who have steamed in at odds around [4.0].

Judged solely on his post-match interview, he seemed fairly upbeat despite acknowledging playing well below his best. Compared to some of his previous post-match whinges, I suppose thats a positive sign. But he didn't exude a great deal of confidence either. On the two occasions he did win at Sheffield, particularly the second time in 2004, he was extraordinarily focussed for the whole 17 days. To a level we've barely seen since, if at all, and certainly wasn't in evidence yesterday.

A persistent problem over the years at the Crucible has been that one terrible session that nearly always means defeat over these longer matches. For instance, in each of the three years, he's been knocked out by Higgins, Dott and Ebdon largely on the back of being stuffed in one eight-frame session where he never looked at the races. Wednesday's opening session against Liu Chuang was rather like that, only this time Ronnie was playing a 17 year-old who couldn't close the deal which enabled him to get out of the session 5-4 ahead.

His second session was better, and he won comfortably with Chuang crumbling as soon as he realised he had an chance of an upset. Nevertheless Chuang had a frame-winning opportunity in virtually every frame. A top class opponent like Stephen Maguire or Shaun Murphy will hammer O'Sullivan if he offers them anywhere near that number of chances.

Despite these reservations, assessing his current price of [4.0] presents something of a dilemma. The next round will be much tougher against an increasingly resurgent Mark Williams, but Ronnie remains a very strong favourite for the game. In Ronnie's favour is an impressive career head-to-head record against the Welshman, even when Williams was snooker's top dog. Two years ago, he emerged from an epic quarter-final match here between the pair, and even though Williams' form has picked up recently, he hasn't shown anywhere near that level of form.

After that, O'Sullivan would start an overwhelming favourite to beat either Joe Swail or Liang Wenbo in the quarters. So laying now at [4.0] looks heavily reliant on Williams pulling off a big upset. The likeliest short-term trend is a repeat of years gone by, with O'Sullivan finding his fluency against lesser opponents, encouraging commentators and punters to be swept away by the hype.

Time after time we've seen his odds reduced to ridiculously low levels before the tougher final stages of tournaments. Consider the market trends in Ronnie's last three failed Crucible bids. He traded at odds-on in 2005 and 2006, and under [3.0] in 2007, despite failing to reach the final in any of those years.

So my immediate advice is to avoid trading Ronnie's outright price, and wait for the annual hype-machine to crank into overdrive. My guess is his next two opponents will offer plenty of chances and O'Sullivan will sail serenely into the semi-finals. At that stage, a lay will become excellent value. But for now, the value lies in other sections of the draw, particularly the other half that contains rock-solid contenders like Maguire and Murphy.