Baize Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 December 2008 / Leave a comment

It's a battle of the big men in Telford today as Stephen Lee faces Shaun Murphy for a place in the semi-finals, and Paul Krishnamurty fancies the outsider...

With his legendary 'fitness' problems, Stephen Lee may not be every punter's favourite player, but he shouldn't be under-estimated. There are few players with more cuepower, and he seems to be striking the ball particularly well this week. He certainly sounded optimistic in his interview after beating Stephen Hendry, crediting some of his improved form to playing with a shorter cue. An impressive comeback in that opening match was followed by a comfortable 9-5 win over Mark King.

Though he always trades at big odds and is the outsider of the eight remaining players, Lee has shown he can still be competitive in the big events fairly recently. Only last January, he reached the Masters final. Nobody left in this event is playing outstandingly well, so there could be some mileage in a trade at [20.0]. More immediately, he rates an excellent value trade at [2.6] against Shaun Murphy.

The jury must remain out on Murphy's form despite a couple of morale-boosting wins at Telford this week. Mark Allen was a useful scalp, but his previous narrow victory over rank outsider Martin Gould was a pretty turgid affair. During that match, he looked in the same poor nick as previously seen this season. He's certainly at nowhere near the relentlessly consistent level of the past two years that earned him his current No.6 world ranking.

Finally, another handy pointer could lie in the fact that Lee won 9-4 the last time the pair met in a best of 17 match, in the 2006 Welsh Open final. And as I recall, Murphy was in far better form back then.

Recommendation:

Stephen Lee @ [2.6]