Baize Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 12 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Paul Krishnamurty considers the perils of backing short priced big-guns in the early rounds. But that doesn't mean he has any doubts about Joe Perry's ability to defeat Mark Davis.

The first round of any snooker tournament involves several very one-sided matches, with the highest ranked broadly playing the lowest ranked. Usually, that makes betting on the favourites at short odds an expensive and risky option, with tomorrow's mismatch between Ronnie O'Sullivan and Rory Mcleod a classic example.

At [1.1], Ronnie's odds are at least reflective of his chance - its hard to see Mcleod turning over Ronnie on snooker grounds alone in a best of 17 frame match - but good luck to anyone brave enough to take such a short price.

Elsewhere though, even at [1.42] 'Gentleman' Joe Perry remains a viable option to beat the vastly inferior Mark Davis. Perry, losing semi-finalist in last year's World Championship, is up to No.7 in the provisional rankings, a full 36 places ahead of tomorrow's opponent.

Perry's strength is a consistent ability to defeat lesser players to progress to the latter stages and accumulate ranking points. This game, against a player who has only ever reached two quarter-finals in well over a decade as a professional, looks ideal. Furthermore, Perry seems to be at his best over the longer matches. Besides the fact his best form has come in the World Championships, he has twice reached the semis before in this event, which is the only other event on the calendar played over the longer format.

There's nothing wrong with recent form either. Last Saturday, Perry produced another fine effort on his way to losing the Premier League semi-final to O'Sullivan in a deciding frame, the second time the pair have gone to the wire this season. Anything approaching that level would surely be enough to get past Davis and set up a re-match with Ronnie in the second round. And such is the gap in quality between the pair, Perry also looks pretty solid on the handicap giving up 2.5 frames.

Recommendation:

Joe Perry at [1.42] (VS M DAVIS)
Joe Perry at [2.1] (-2.5 FRAMES)