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The Contrarian: Why Ronnie O'Sullivan won't win the UK Masters

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The Contrarian tells us why the smart money shouldn't be on the Rocket this time round

Saga Insurance may not quite have the glamour that big tobacco used to lend to the premier snooker events, but their UK Masters is still one of the most prestigious prizes in the sport. Reigning champion Ronnie O'Sullivan [3.35] to win with Betfair is favourite, with the man he beat in last year's final, China's Ding Junhui [9.2], heading the pack of cueists hoping to prevent the 'Rocket' tying up back-to-back victories.

But although O'Sullivan begins the tournament as overwhelming favourite, he has a reputation for unpredictability; last May he was fined £20,000 for walking out of his UK Championship quarter-final against Stephen Hendry the previous year with only six frames played. At his best he is simply unbeatable, but when he's not in the mood he looks like a different player altogether. So which of the 'two Ronnies' will turn up at Wembley Arena? The statistics suggest it might just be the latter...

1. The Rocket rarely defends his titles successfully

Despite huge career success, only twice has Ronnie O'Sullivan won back-to-back major knockout tournaments (the Welsh Open in 2004 and 2005 and the China Open in 1999 and 2000). Stephen Hendry, by contrast, has successfully defended major titles on 15 occasions.

2. Beware Ding Junhui

In the 33-year history of the tournament, only 7 beaten finalists have not either gone on to win the competition in later years or had a previous success under their belts at the time of their defeat. Four of the last five Masters winners were beaten finalists in the previous tournament, which suggests Ding Junhui stands a good chance of bouncing back from last year's final defeat and winning this year's Masters. If he comes through a difficult first round match against 2006 champion John Higgins, Junhui is on course to meet O'Sullivan in the final.

3. Consecutive Masters victories don't happen often...

Were O'Sullivan to win, it would only be his second consecutive Masters victory, a feat previously achieved by only three men (Cliff Thorburn, 1985-1986; Stephen Hendry, 1989-1993; and Paul Hunter, 2001-2002).

4. ...and O'Sullivan has never successfully defended a Masters title

On the two previous occasions that O'Sullivan has sought to defend a Masters title, he's made the final and lost. In 1996 he went down 10-5 to Stephen Hendry after having beaten John Higgins in the previous season's final, while in 2006 he followed up his 2004-2005 win over Higgins with a 10-9 defeat against the same man. Furthermore, O'Sullivan holds the record for the most defeats in UK Masters finals with four (1996, 1997, 2004 and 2006).

5. The draw has not been kind

The draw for the Masters means O'Sullivan will have to be on his game right from the start of the tournament. He comfortably dispatched first-round opponent Stephen Maguire in the final of the UK Championship in December, but the Scot nonetheless represents a difficult first obstacle to overcome, and Shaun Murphy (world number three) and Mark Selby (world number eleven) look likely to be lying in wait in the later rounds. His 2006 conqueror John Higgins is a potential final opponent.

6. Ronnie has let the punters down in the past

He started last season's World Championship as the clear favourite, but despite overcoming Ding Junhui and Neil Robertson in the opening rounds his progress was halted by eventual winner John Higgins in the quarter-finals. In 2003 he went into the World Championship on the back of victories in the Scottish Masters, the European Open and the Irish Masters, but was defeated in the first round by the unseeded Marco Fu. And although he may have won the UK Championship in Telford recently, that was O'Sullivan's first ranking tournament win since the Irish Masters in 2005 - a gap of almost three years.