Snooker Masters First Round Bets: Fill up on Murphy's finest

Snooker / John Woodford / 08 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Marco Fu in a chair - a site John Woodford wants to see again and again during his first round clash with Peter Ebdon

"Stephen Hendry has not beaten Shaun Murphy for three years. Although showing glimpses of form in the Premier League, [1.5] about Hendry being sent home in the first round of The Masters for a third consecutive year seems a standout price. "

Shaun should have too much for Stephen, Ron v Neil is one to watch, while Marco and Peter will try but fail to win frames in one visit. John Woodford covers the first round at Wembley

Punters could be forgiven for experiencing significant distress when perusing the first round of The Masters draw, comprising of just two games which appeal about as much as another BBC VT revealing groundbreaking news that Ali Carter is in fact a qualified pilot.

Thankfully, slide your eyes a few inches to the right on the draw sheet and the 'first round' proper sits there with the usual suspects eagerly waiting to ply their trade. If you feel the need to get involved in either of the wildcard matches, then do so with caution. There are certain match-ups to stay away from in snooker where bank jobs can be blown to smithereens with substandard play not following form. As an example, albeit not case and point, take a look at Neil Robertson's record against Steve Davis or Stephen Hendry. A Williams/King double would be the only consideration to small stakes.

The announcement in the same press release that Ronnie O'Sullivan is experimenting with a purple cue and has signed an all important deal with Premier Inn (who else?), sums up this rather confused and erratic individual. Perhaps his attentions would be better focused on the 2009 Grand Prix Winner, his first opponent in the defence of his own title. An increase in future prize money under Barry Hearn's directorship could be a significant factor in O'Sullivan's success in the coming year or two and will be worth keeping an eye on. That's all I'll be doing for this game; it has the makings of a cracker.

Stephen Hendry has not beaten Shaun Murphy for three years. Although showing glimpses of form in the Premier League, [1.5] about Hendry being sent home in the first round of The Masters for a third consecutive year seems a standout price. Still we hear Hendry has what it takes to win a Major title, but with so many hungry young players he is shooting a bit high. If Murphy arrives, he should have far too much for him.

In 2009, John Higgins won 42 per cent of all races to six frames. For the same time period, Mark Allen won 75 per cent. Higgins is often thought of as a weaker player over the shorter distance. But Higgins has played 275 best of nine in his career and quite remarkably, has won 208 of them. Despite Higgins departing company from The Masters in the first round no less than five times in the last 10 years, I wanted [3.75] on Allen - so currently it's a no bet.

The final approach I am taking in the first round is one which involves the in-play market. Whist I would not encourage a nonchalant attitude to pricing a market in-play, there are some compelling statistics which suggest laying certain players when in the balls pays off. One player steps up to the plate nicely, and he is Marco Fu.

In the last ten games that Fu has played, he has lost a total of 48 frames. In 43 of these frames, he was at the table scoring - in only five frames did he score no points. In 38 of them he accumulated over five points and in 36 frames scored ten points and above. In their last ten matches and in comparison to Fu's five, the top three in the world have not scored in ten, ten and seven of the frames they have lost, respectively. This statistic is significant given the fewer number of frames lost at the top of the rankings list. Put simply, Fu regularly gets himself at the table and is back in his chair without the frame secured.

Given the wholesale overreaction of a player potting a ball by those desperate to secure some free money and the ever increasing number of visits his opponent, Peter Ebdon, also takes to secure frames, I will be laying both players at [1.66] in the Frame By Frame markets. Fu's dreadful recent form makes me more confident than usual of turning a profit over the course of 11 frames using such an approach.

Suggested First Round Bets:
2 pts Shaun Murphy [1.5]
0.25 pts lay Fu/Ebdon Frame By Frame Mkts [1.66]