Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 January 2009 / Leave a comment

The Masters is a tournament where the formbook stands up like few others, says Paul Krishnamurty as he anticipates a close fought final between the defending champion and the favourite.

Of the 16 matches so far, 12 have gone to the favourite, and three of the four 'upsets' were hardly shocks as the betting was virtually even in those games.

For the record, those three were Ding Junhui's defeat of Shaun Murphy, John Higgins' subsequent defeat of Ding and Mark Selby's defeat of Higgins in yesterday's semi. And so it has panned out that the final will be contested between the pre-tournament favourite and second favourite.

So considering that the odds on today's final are more one-sided than any match since the opening day, this should be a formality. Right? Well, not really because as impressive as Ronnie O'Sullivan has been so far, he has never been a man to trust at short odds-on. And in Selby, he faces an opponent with a reputation for slowing the game down and grinding out victories in the style of a 1980s spoiler. If anyone has the game to knock the Rocket out of his stride, its defending Masters champion Selby.

Nevertheless, Ronnie has the slight edge on their last three big match encounters. O'Sullivan emerged on top in a classic semi-final at the 2007 UK Championships, hitting a 147 in the deciding frame. Selby came from the dead to reverse that 9-8 scoreline and steal the Welsh Open final a couple of months later. Most recently, Ronnie trounced Selby 7-2 in the Premier League final.

On the form showed by each player this week, Ronnie thoroughly deserves favouritism, but you won't get rich backing [1.45] shots though in games like this. My plan is to have a few correct score bets, on Ronnie to win 10-7, 10-8 and 10-9. A combined bet on those three pays approximately [3.2].

Selections:

Ronnie O'Sullivan to win 10-7 at [9.2]
Ronnie O'Sullivan to win 10-8 at [9.6]
Ronnie O'Sullivan 10-9 at [11.0]