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Masters Snooker Betting: Stats point to a narrow Selby triumph

Snooker RSS / / 12 January 2012 /

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Will Mark Selby capture a third Masters triumph next week?

Will Mark Selby capture a third Masters triumph next week?

"Ronnie O’Sullivan and Mark Selby fit the bill perfectly, but with the former having a tough opening match and a potential meeting with Trump in the quarter-final, Selby is the selection in the Winner market."

Snooker fan Mike Norman has gone through 37 years of Masters history and come up with some intriguing stats to aid your betting next week. Mark Selby is the selection, whilst a close final is also anticipated.

When the 2012 Masters commences on Sunday afternoon it will become the first Triple Crown snooker tournament in over 30 years not to include either of the game's two most successful players, Steve Davis and Stephen Hendry.

With a stat like that the rest of this piece can only go down hill (or in-off given this is a snooker article) so let's file it under 'sentimental stat' and have a re-rack.

To snooker lovers such as myself, a tournament without Davis and Hendry is like sitting down to a roast dinner without the gravy; there's something important missing but there's still more than enough to whet your appetite.

And yes, the forthcoming Masters tournament promises to be one of the most exciting weeks of snooker in a very long time. It kicks off with Ronnie O'Sullivan - available to back at [7.4] in the Winner market - versus Ding Junhui ([18.0]) on Sunday afternoon. In other words, it's like arriving at a party and being greeted by Cheryl Cole handing you a pint of lager. It just doesn't get any better.

Ding is of course the defending champion having defeated Marco Fu 10-4 in last year's final. Only two of the 18 individual first-time winners (Hendry and Paul Hunter) have successfully defended their crown a year later however.

Debutants don't have a particularly good record either. Since the event was switched to a 16-man format way back in 1983 only Hendry (1989) and Mark Selby (2008) have won the Masters at the first attempt. This stat doesn't auger well for the brilliant and wonderfully exciting tournament favourite Judd Trump ([7.2]). Trump lost at the Wild Card stage in 2009 but is making his debut in the first round proper. Martin Gould ([46.0]) and Stuart Bingham ([65.0]) are also making their debuts this year.

Also making its debut in 2012 is the Alexandra Palace, now the regular home of the PDC World Darts Championship. Rumour has it that Adrian Lewis has already been in touch with his good friend Ronnie, telling him to pack his hat and scarf as it can get a bit blustery inside the atmospheric Ally Pally venue.

Incidentally, O'Sullivan has won the event more times (four) than any other player competing this year. Selby ([7.8]), John Higgins ([8.0]) and Mark Williams ([14.0]) are the other multiple winners in the competition with two victories apiece.

England has registered more Masters victories than any other nation with 14 titles to its name, ahead of Scotland (nine), Wales (six), Northern Ireland (three), Canada (three), South Africa (one) and China (one). Half of this year's 16-man field are English, three are Scottish, two are Welsh, and there's one player each from Australia, China and Northern Ireland.

In summary, first time winners have a poor record at defending, debutants don't fare well, multiple winners are quite common, and England is the nation of players to look towards. O'Sullivan and Selby fit the bill perfectly then, but with the former having a tough opening match and a potential meeting with Trump in the quarter-final, Selby is the selection in the Winner market.

Surprisingly for a tournament of such prestige and one littered with world class performers, maximum breaks are very rare at the Masters. Exactly 4,860 frames of snooker have been played in 37 years of Masters matches and over 100,000 balls have been potted, yet that magical sequence of 36 successive pots has been achieved on just two occasions - by Kirk Stevens in 1984 and Ding Junhui in 2007.

I've got more chance of the aforementioned Cheryl Cole accompanying me out of a party than a 147 break being achieved next week, but if you disagree then you can get the Yes option matched at [3.4] in the Maximum Break market.

Finally, if Selby is knocked out before the final and a 147 is achieved then don't worry, we can get our losses back on the final itself, in the Correct Score market to be more precise.

Six of the last 14 finals went all the way to a final-frame decider whilst 10 of the last 15 were won by a margin of no greater than two frames. The advice is to back 10-9 and 10-8 either way in next Sunday's final, regardless of the players in contention. Have a very enjoyable, and highly-profitable week.

Masters Stats Top Tips
Back Mark Selby @ [7.8] in Winner market
Dutch 10-8 and 10-9 both ways in the final


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