Masters Snooker Bet Day Seven: Maguire can end Selby's run of luck

Snooker / Paul Krishnamurty / 16 January 2010 / 1

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Maguire's the man

"Mark Selby didn't play particularly well at all last night, offering Mark Allen several chances in most frames. If he does the same against a break-builder of Maguire's prowess, he'll be punished."

Mark Selby is winning but is he showing any form? Paul Krishnamurty thinks not and is getting behind Stephen Maguire in this Masters semi-final

There are two ways of looking at Mark Selby's remarkable run of winning final frame deciders at Wembley, which he extended to six of his last ten Masters matches last night. On the one hand, it emphasises Selby's magnificent temperament and how much he enjoys high pressure situations. On the other, given the nature of some of those nail-biting finales, his luck must run out soon. The first argument is stronger than the second, but he certainly needed his fair share of good fortune to edge past Mark Allen yesterday.

Moreover, Selby's record offers an obvious clue for betting strategy in his matches. Given that he starts favourite against virtually everyone else, it has repeatedly paid to lay Selby at odds-on with a view to trading out for profit in-running. That strategy paid off again yesterday, with loser Allen trading as low as [1.25].

With these trends in mind, a bet on Stephen Maguire to win their semi-final at [2.5] is therefore a no-brainer. In fact I can barely see justification for Selby even being favourite. Of the pair, Maguire is ranked much higher in both the actual and provisional rankings. The Scot has also won twice as many top-class titles. Their most recent encounter in the group final of last week's Championship League resulted in a 3-0 win for Maguire.

Granted, Maguire has won distinctly ordinary matches so far and not impressed with his own form. He did at least finish both matches strongly with some quality clearances though, and has always been the type of player who can catch fire at short notice. The bottom line is that Selby didn't play particularly well at all last night, offering his opponent several chances in most frames. If he does the same against a break-builder of Maguire's prowess, he'll be punished.

Selection: Stephen Maguire @ [2.5]

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Steve | 17 January 2010

Another fantastic prediction Paul.