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Snooker Masters Betting: Selby can give favourite backers a break ... at last

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Paul Krishnamurty predicts good things for Mark Selby in today's final...

If there was any dispute at the start of the week about the identity of the best player yet to win an event on snooker's main tour, then Mark Selby has comprehensively settled it this week. Selby starts a strong [1.47] favourite for this afternoon's Masters final against Stephen Lee, and will surely never get a better chance to land his first title.

A lop-sided draw has had a huge influence in determining the outcome of this tournament, with the top half representing a significantly higher standard. In my view, the best three players in the event have been in the top section - Selby, Stephen Maguire and Ken Doherty. Having eliminated those last two, Selby thoroughly deserves to be a short price against pre-tournament [60.0] chance Lee.

Though Lee has cued well in his last couple of matches, his wins are of limited merit in comparison. All three of his opponents so far have turned in dire performances, particularly Ebdon and Fu. Selby will be a completely different proposition. Most of Lee's frames have been punctured by missed chances and bouts of tactical play, but if this is the case today it plays right into Selby's hands. Surprisingly for a player still relatively inexperienced, Selby has already proved himself a master of the tactical game.

Furthermore, the longer match should not only accentuate differences in skill between the pair but also fitness. There has to be a question mark over whether Lee is fit enough to cope with a long drawn out best of 19 frame affair. And this against a player quickly developing a reputation for long frames and marathon matches lasting till the early hours.

Selby is clearly suited by this longer format, with his best two tournaments to date coming in the World and UK Championships. No doubt some people will wonder whether 'bottle' may be a factor whilst chasing his first tournament victory, but having shown nerves of steel so far to win three consecutive deciding frames, I very much doubt that will be an issue.

I suppose the one deterring factor is that odds-on backers have endured a miserable run over the last week. Ronnie O'Sullivan's opening day exit set the trend and all four quarter-finals went to the outsider. There's probably a lesson there about the unpredictability of short matches, though one which doesn't apply to this best of 19 final.

Over the same distance Selby beat Lee 10-5 in the first round of last year's World Championship, having trailed 5-0. In the strong expectation that he will start better this time, I'm backing Selby at [1.54] and on the handicap giving away 1.5 frames at [1.75].