Masters Betting: Quarter-final previews for every match

Snooker / Paul Krishnamurty / 17 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty on the final eight preparing for battle at Wembley...

STEPHEN MAGUIRE v MARK SELBY

Looking at this game simply from a form perspective, Stephen Maguire deserves to be clear favourite. He's been the winner and runner-up of the two most recent events, only losing the UK final to Ronnie O'Sullivan in invincible form. In gaining revenge for that defeat here on Sunday, Maguire staked his claim as the man to beat at Wembley this week. Alternatively, Mark Selby's laboured deciding frame victory over struggling Stephen Hendry represented a much lower standard of snooker.

However, while there is no bigger fan of 'On Fire' Maguire than me, I can't help but think that Mark Selby may be the opponent from hell. Maguire has one very obvious weakness in the psychological department and has been known to descend very quickly from breakbuilding machine to struggling amateur when things don't go his way. In fairness, he's done a very good job in recent months of negating that dark side of his game, but if there's a man to drive him to distraction then it could be Selby.

"The Jester from Leicester", (surely a candidate for the worst nickname of all-time?), brings back memories of Cliff Thorburn and Terry Griffiths with his painfully slow play. Remember the five hours it took for him to reel off seven frames in the world final? Or the hour-and-a-half frame in Telford last month? The crucial point is that while this can completely break an opponent's rhythm, it doesn't seem to bother Selby.

The longer this game goes on, the likelier a Selby victory becomes. So in the hope that he can at least share the first four frames to set the game up, my advice here is a trade on Selby at [2.54].

SHAUN MURPHY v KEN DOHERTY

This is the first of two pivotal quarter-final matches for my pre-tournament bets. http://betting.betfair.com/betting/snooker/enigmatic-osullivan-is-worth-avoiding-in-the-betting-fo-090108.html
When I backed Shaun Murphy before the event, I had envisaged a straightforward match against an out-of-form opponent at this stage. That assumption now looks slightly premature after Ken Doherty produced his best snooker in ages to beat Mark Williams in what was arguably the highest quality match of the first round.

Nevertheless it has been quite some time since Ken looked competitive at the highest level and its no certainty that he'll repeat the trick. Murphy, bidding for his fourth consecutive semi-final appearance, represents a formidable opponent. Shaun has become extremely proficient at beating opponents that he's expected to, only losing to Maguire and O'Sullivan in those last three events.

If the provisional world rankings are any sort of guide, third-placed Murphy must start a strong favourite against sixteenth placed Doherty. I'm confident the big man will deliver, but don't expect him to have it all his own way. Therefore, my advice here is two correct score bets on Murphy to win 6-5 and 6-4, both at odds of around [7.0].

PETER EBDON v STEPHEN LEE

Those with good snooker memories may recall a tremendous match between Peter Ebdon and Stephen Lee at the Crucible, which ended with Ebdon screaming "Come On" after every shot. Lee was not best pleased at the time, though I doubt there's any lingering animosity.

On that occasion, Ebdon characteristically ground down his opponent to come from behind to win 13-12 in a gruelling, marathon final session. And if Stephen Lee's match against Graeme Dott last night is anything to go by, we could be in for another gritty, dour affair.

Once again, my pre-tournament positions on Ebdon and Day were motivated by the assumption that they would face a badly out-of-form opponent in this quarter-final. There was nothing from Lee's first-round match to lessen my confidence. Both he and Dott played to a standard which would have probably ensured defeat against any other player in the event, in line with their dire form over recent months.

Ebdon wasn't brilliant either against Day, but did enough to eliminate a dangerous opponent. He spoke afterwards about how determined he was to improve on a disappointing record at Wembley, and looks a banker to progress to the semis. His odds around [1.55] are fair enough, if slightly prohibitive, so better value may lie with a bet on Ebdon giving away 1.5 frames on the handicap at around [1.8].

DING JUNHUI v MARCO FU

By defeating John Higgins yesterday, Ding Junhui took over the mantle of tournament favourite. I'm not quite sure this should be the case whilst Maguire and Murphy are still in the event, and think its rather a reflection of the fact that Ding is in the opposite half of the draw to that pair.

Nevertheless, its impossible to deny that he was hugely impressive in the most part yesterday in coming 3-1 down to eliminate world champion John Higgins 6-4. Some of the tactical naivety was still on show, particularly during a very nervy finish when both players looked gone, but overall he looked very fluent.

Probably too fluent for a lesser light such as Fu. In other circumstances, I could imagine arguing that reputations can be deceptive and that whereas Ding has failed to reach a semi-final this year, Fu has actually won a ranking event. That statistical reality is the reason why Ding's odds are as big as [1.5] for this match. A year ago, in this identical scenario, I reckon he would have been below [1.3].

None of these longer term stats though can alter the fact that the form Ding showed against Higgins yesterday was in another league to Fu's two matches. Fu played well in patches to beat Neil Robertson and Steve Davis, but was aided in both by the amounts of chances presented by his opponent. If both players maintain a similar level of form, then Ding should win comfortably.

As in the Ebdon match though, 1.5 is slightly prohibitive in these fairly short matches, so I prefer a bet on Ding to win giving up 1.5 frames on the handicap ata price of around [1.8].