Snooker / David Hendon / 30 September 2009 / Leave a comment

The Grand Prix is played using a random draw format so punters cannot adopt their usual pre-tournament stance and spend hours pouring over the drawsheet, plotting a course to the final for the various players. For this reason, it is hard to look beyond the big hitters, writes David Hendon.

"Stephen Hendry could be vulnerable against Matt Selt [2.14]. Meanwhile, Mark Selby hasn’t reached a ranking event semi-final in a year and Ken Doherty (2.66) is the sort of wily operator to exploit any mistakes."

Ronnie O'Sullivan [3.55] tends to play well in spells. He has often had a run of two or three titles or finals in succession before entering a mini-slump.

It is hard to see the world number one losing to Jamie Burnett, who has rarely played well on television. After that, O'Sullivan, like everyone else, must rely on the luck of the draw but he was in good personal form at the Shanghai Masters last month and managed to win the title without ever needing to hit top form. If he arrives in Glasgow in similar mood then it won't matter who he plays. Despite all the controversies and his maverick persona, the Rocket remains the man to beat.

There are a number of first round matches that, all things being equal, would appear to be bankers. O'Sullivan [1.11] to beat Burnett is one while John Higgins [1.14] will be regarded as a racing certainty to beat Mark Joyce, who is appearing on television for only the second time in his career.

Joyce, the world no.57, has never reached the last 32 stage of a ranking tournament before and if he's awash with nerves and like a rabbit in the headlights as he tackles the world champion - in Higgins's home town - nobody could blame him. Higgins, who beat Ryan Day 9-7 last year to win a fourth Grand Prix title, has to guard against complacency but it's hard to believe he will lose. Put it this way: if he does it will go down as one of the biggest shocks in the history of the sport. Higgins is [9.2] for the title before a ball has been struck, a tempting price regardless of the FA Cup style nature of the tournament.

Other likely first round winners are Neil Robertson [1.37], who should have too much firepower for the inconsistent Gerard Greene, and Marco Fu [1.4], who faces journeyman Mark Davis, a player who tends not to produce the goods in front of the cameras. Ricky Walden [1.37], currently in training for the New York marathon, beat Mark King in Shanghai and at the Masters last season and should be backed to complete the hat-trick in Glasgow.

So where will the shocks come? Stephen Hendry could be vulnerable against Matt Selt, a practice partner of O'Sullivan who has suddenly come to life this season. Selt [2.14] won four matches to qualify for Shanghai and another four to reach Glasgow, despite having trailed Jordan Brown 4-0 in the first round. He's a heavy scorer but lacks experience of playing on television - indeed this will be only his second match under TV conditions. The pressure, though, is on Hendry, who is in danger of being considered an easy draw - a situation unthinkable even five years ago.

Mark Selby also has it all to do having fallen to tenth in the latest rankings after a first round exit in Shanghai. Selby tackles Ken Doherty, who plummeted to 55th in the provisional rankings before Shanghai after two desperate years. I made him my outsider in China because there were signs he was beginning to rediscover some lost form and the Irishman duly reached the quarter-finals and shot up 18 places to 37th. Selby hasn't reached a ranking event semi-final in a year and Doherty (2.66) is just the sort of wily operator to exploit any mistakes.

Other top 16 players who could be set for an early exit are Joe Perry, who hasn't won a match since missing a pink to beat O'Sullivan at the Masters last January. Perry faces Scottish middle ranker Marcus Campbell (2.52), a player with enough experience to scrap through even without playing great stuff.

Peter Ebdon has played Liang Wenbo twice and only won one frame in total against the 22 year-old Chinese, who reached his first ranking event final in Shanghai. Even Ebdon's legendary tactical prowess isn't enough to keep talented long potter Liang (1.52) out of the balls.

The other seed with problems is Ding Junhui, who faces Matthew Stevens, once as high as fourth in the rankings but now down in 26th place. The Welshman, like Doherty, has started to show indications of a mini-resurgence and is worth supporting at 2.27 to beat the unpredictable Ding.

In fact, Stevens (70.0 outright) is a good outsider to follow in this most unpredictable of tournaments. He may need a bit of luck with the draw but if he can stay away from the green baize big guns he could go a long way and has the experience to do some damage at the business end of the tournament.

Tags: Grand Prix Snooker Championship odds, Ken Doherty, MAtt Stevens, Matthew Stevens, Ronnie O'Sullivan, Snooker Betting, Stephen Hendry