Grand Prix Snooker Bets Day Two: Carter's 'nappy factor' points towards a bet on match-fit Milkins

Snooker / Paul Krishnamurty / 03 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Milkins has already had to play three matches to get to this last-32 stage. Nor were his victims pushovers by any means - he beat Stephen Lee and former ranking event finalist Andrew Higginson in the last two."

New dad Carter may be vulnerable against a 'grooved' opponent in the shape of Robert Milkins

There is a long-running dispute amongst golf punters about the effects of the 'nappy factor', but all the same arguments could equally apply to snooker. The theory says that, immediately after a player's partner has given birth to their child, either a particularly positive or negative effect on their performance can be seen, depending on your perspective. I've always tended towards the view that the effect is negative, because such life-changing distractions are likelier to have an adverse effect on focus and practice schedule.

Therefore, new dad Ali Carter could be vulnerable in Sunday's opening match against Robert Milkins, despite his clear supremacy in the rankings. There are few sports where recent practice is more important than snooker, which is why we often see a lot of upsets in the early stages of the season, because the lesser players are 'match fit' from various qualifying rounds.

That is very much the case here, as Milkins has already had to play three matches to get to this last-32 stage. Nor were his victims pushovers by any means - he beat Stephen Lee and former ranking event finalist Andrew Higginson in the last two.

In most of these short, best of nine games, there's a temptation to back the outsider as so many go to the wire. So considering these two further important factors, Milkins at [3.45] must at least offer some trading mileage.