Snooker / Paul Krishnamurty / 11 October 2009 /

It's too close too call as two hugely talented young guns of snooker lock horns in the final of the Grand Prix. So this is how to approach the match on the betting front, says Paul Krishnamurty...

Today's match in Glasgow will be the first ranking final between two overseas players since the 1980s, and it is simply too close to call. Its hard to escape the conclusion that market-makers are spot-on in making this an 'Evens the pair' affair, so rather than taking a strong position either way pre-match, the best solution may lie in playing the correct score market.

On every measure, Ding Junhui and Neil Robertson are hard to split. Both are extremely talented young players, tipped for stardom ever since they arrived on the professional scene. Both have won three ranking titles, though both have slipped backed a little in the last eighteen months or so. On that last score, Robertson perhaps has the slight edge, as he reached the world championship semis last year, as well as winning the lower standard Bahrain Championship.

Equally a strong case could be made for either on this week's evidence. Both players have scored heavily when presented with chances, but equally neither has been flawless by any means. With five centuries to Ding's three, Robertson again has the slight edge on break-building. In contrast, Ding has lost only eight frames to Robertson's eleven, though in fairness that difference is basically due to the latter facing a markedly tougher opponent in the semi-final.

As they haven't met in a ranking event for nearly four years, there's no meaningful conclusions to be drawn about head to head form either. In fact, there seems little sense in trying to engineer an argument to favour one player over another, when a far safer conclusion to draw is that this match is likely to go to the wire.

By backing both players to win 9-8 and 9-7 at around the [10.0] mark, we are effectively taking [2.5] about there being sixteen frames or more. Here's another interesting stat. In the last ten top-class snooker finals that were over best of seventeen or nineteen frames, eight were settled by two frames or less. In other words, this bet would have won in 80% of them, and none looked as close beforehand.

Selections

Robertson to win 9-8 @ [10.0]
Robertson to win 9-7 @ [10.0]
Junhui to win 9-8 @ [10.0]
Junhui to win 9-7 @ [10.0]

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