Betfair | Enigmatic O'Sullivan is worth avoiding in the betting for the snooker Masters

Enigmatic O'Sullivan is worth avoiding in the betting for the snooker Masters

Student of the green baize Paul Krishnamurty tells us why Peter Ebdon and Sean Murphy are better bets than O'Sullivan for the snooker Masters

Anyone watching snooker for the first time at last month's UK Championship could be forgiven for thinking that betting on this sport was easy pickings. In Telford, three of the last four were widely tipped to reach the closing stages and the runaway favourite Ronnie O'Sullivan duly delivered in a very one-sided final. Hardened snooker punters though will know this is anything but the case, that the last 17 tournaments have yielded 13 different winners and that O'Sullivan has a longstanding reputation as the least reliable favourite in sports betting.

The market for each tournament revolves around two crucial factors - O'Sullivan's form and psychological wellbeing, plus the draw. First to Ronnie, who is bidding for his fourth Masters title and third in four years. As he showed in Telford, he is unbeatable on his best form - an amazing talent and a joy to watch. And for all his well-documented mishaps, the Masters probably suits him better than any other knockout event. Played at Wembley, Ronnie seems to get a boost from a vociferous supportive crowd in his home city, and this fragile individual may well also benefit from being able to return home every night.

Quite simply, there is every chance he will sweep all before him again. But given his history and recent record, (Telford was his first ranking title in nearly three years), odds of less than [3.5] represent no value whatsoever. The draw has not been kind either, with tough opponents expected all the way through to the final. Indeed, his first round match against Stephen Maguire is arguably the toughest he could have possibly drawn. Ronnie will approach this match with confidence having thrashed Maguire in the UK final, but the Glaswegian had previously been living up to his "On Fire" nickname and is certainly no pushover. Should O'Sullivan overcome this tricky opening hurdle, he'll still have to maintain top form with Mark Selby and Shaun Murphy the most likely barriers just to reach the final.

O'Sullivan and Maguire are not the only players with cause for complaint about the draw. The two principal players in the bottom half, John Higgins and Ding Junhui, also meet in the opening round. For trading purposes then, it makes much more sense to focus on players in the weaker sections who can be strongly fancied to progress to the latter stages without too much trouble.

Murphy at least has a reasonable path to the semis and looks the best value trade at around [13.0]. He was probably the most consistent player in 2007, winning the Welsh Open and reaching four of the last five semi-finals. Three of those semis - against Selby, O'Sullivan and Maguire - were lost in the deciding frame. Murphy traded at less than [5.0] in every one of those events and could easily have won again with a little more luck. He should start a very strong favourite in both his opener against Ali Carter, and a quarter-final against either of the struggling pair Mark Williams and Ken Doherty.

The third quarter looks by far the weakest. Graeme Dott and Stephen Lee meet in the first round, ensuring that one must reach the quarter-finalists. As a former world champ, I'm not prepared to completely write off Dott but his recent form has been dire. His only saving grace is that Lee has been even worse, so whoever emerges as their quarter-final opponent will be a strong fancy.

Three players are vying for this position - Peter Ebdon, Ryan Day and Barry Hawkins. Day, another player who seems to be consistently under-estimated, looks the most likely for me and a mouthwatering trade at [40.0]. A finalist in Shanghai earlier in the year, this fluent break-builder will surely win a big event before long and must be a little frustrated that so many lesser players have beaten him to it over the last year.

Ebdon is also worth adding to the staking plan, as he awaits the winner of the Day/Hawkins opener. Another former world champion, Ebdon usually reserves his very best for Sheffield but still holds by far the strongest reputation of anyone else in this quarter. His current odds are [21.0], which coupled with Day equates to combined odds of just under [14.0]. If as expected one of this pair reaches the semis, that combined bet would provide plenty of trading options.

ADVISED BETS

10pts SHAUN MURPHY @ [13.0]
7pts PETER EBDON @ [21.0]
4pts RYAN DAY @ [40.0]