Weekend Gaelic Games Betting: Dublin v Westmeath and Armagh v Down.

Other / Editor / 26 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

As the big-guns enter the fray for the semi finals of the Leinster and Ulster Senior Football Championship, Hugh Cahill looks ahead to where the value might lie in the Betfair markets.

Dublin v Westmeath, Sunday 2pm, Croke Park

The market for the Leinster Football Championship has faded somewhat since Meath's surprise defeat to Wexford earlier this month. Any punters out there willing to take on Dublin with Meath still fighting for the crown were running for the hills when the 'Yellow Bellies' stamped all over the 'Royals' in Doctor Cullen Park. It's not that we're accusing Wexford of being lucky in their progression to the final; they fully deserved their six point win over Laois last weekend, and their victory against Meath was one of most amazing come backs in Championship history, but the astute punters on the sidelines know that deep down, in their heart-of-hearts, Dublin are now near certainties to retain their Leinster crown this year. They're trading at [1.5] on Betfair's Leinster Championship market.

So, this weekend, will we be backing Westmeath to cause an upset in Croke Park on Sunday afternoon? In short, no. Tomas O'Flaharta's side stumbled through their opener against Offaly in what was a pretty poor display overall. Dessie Dolan gave a typically clinical performance scoring 1-4 - despite being best man for his brother Gary earlier in the day - but apart from that, 'The Lake County' looked decidedly average. They have got a better performance in them, but without Martin Flanagan, they look very vulnerable in midfield. Dublin, meanwhile are full of confidence, playing at home in front of a capacity Hill 16 and appear to have plenty of ammunition, both on the field and on the bench, to dispose of any challenge Westmeath could possibly mount. Ciaran Whelan's exclusion from the starting fifteen shows just how much competition there is for places in the Dublin camp. Eamon Fennell and Shane Ryan continue their partnership in midfield, while Bernard Brogan returns in attack and is sure to make his mark on the game.

Dublin's weakness has always been closing-out games. We saw it against Mayo in the All Ireland semi-final two years ago when they just seemed to switch off in the last quarter. They won't have forgotten that experience in a hurry though and if ever the time was right to send out a message about their Sam Maguire intentions, now is it. Expect 'Pillar' Caffrey to have his side fired-up from the off and Westmeath to be overpowered, out played and out scored.

Recommended bets:
2 pts Dublin, HT/FT @ 1.62
1 pt Dublin -5.5 points @ 1.76

Armagh v Down, Sunday 4pm Clones

Down proved that their quarter final draw with Tyrone was no fluke when they dispatched Mickey Harte's men in the replay two weeks ago. Both performances proved they deseved their place in the Ulster semi-final and they still have this unending fighting spirit, which means it is always dangerous to side against them in the betting markets. This time, however, I'm feeling justifiably brave.

Armagh have been building a steady run over the last couple of months and it seems that everything is falling right for them at exactly the right time. Oisin McConville is fit and ready to go after a scare playing for his club over the weekend. The rock hard Francie Bellew is back to his best in defence and with Stephen Kernan, Aaron Kernan and Ronan Clarke supporting McConville in attack, they have some serious firepower at their disposal. This could well prove the difference between the sides after 70 minutes.

Down depend hugely on Bennie Coulter to perform and have an over reliance on goals. Armagh boss Peter McDonnell seems to have been building for the Championship all season and from what we've seen so far, it would appear he's timed things perfectly.

Expect a tough, physical and gritty encounter in Clones but, for me, Armagh have that bit too much for a Down team playing their third game in four weeks.

Recommended:
1 pt Armagh -2.5points @ 1.91