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The Betfair Contrarian - Why Oxford won't win the Boat Race

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He's at it again, this time telling us why favourites Oxford won't be the ones with Boat Race bragging rights come Sunday afternoon

The Contrarian: Why Oxford won't win the 2008 Boat Race

Oxford and Cambridge head back into the water on Saturday for the 154th edition of their most famous personal squabble. While no one outside of the two cities really gives a flying one who wins, this archaic contest will still attract the curious to the riverbank in their thousands, and a bit of lively betting action to go with it (Oxford are currently [1.83] on Betfair to win, Cambridge are [2.14].) On Tuesday, Oxford "won" the weigh-in without too much effort, and while they may be labouring under the impression this gives them a significant advantage, The Contrarian believes it gives them nothing but bragging rights over who's fattest, and that it's Cambridge you should back if you want your wallet to experience a weight lift. Here's why...

Cambridge are historically the better of the two...

Not only have Cambridge won more races outright, leading the series 79-73, they have also won ten of the last 15.

...and they are the reigning champions...

Cambridge won last year's race with an impressive time of 17:49, and although Oxford start the race as favourites this year (Oxford are [1.83] on Betfair to win, Cambridge are [2.14]), they were even hotter favourites last year, when some bookies had them as short as 1.56, yet Cambridge still outwitted them.

...and they are even better than last year.

Cambridge cox Rebecca Dowbiggin is convinced that her team is stronger than last year, when they triumphed by a length and a quarter. She said: "I think we've got a slightly punchier rhythm and it's possibly a slightly more cohesive crew - we work well together both on and off the water. They're very good at talking about what we want to do and then putting it into practice on the water."

Heaviest isn't always best

While Oxford won the race in 2005 with the heaviest ever crew and their crew this year, with an advantage of nearly 12lbs a person, is the heaviest ever besides that, it is a common misconception that the crew weighing the most is more likely to win. Only ten of the last 20 crews that have had the weight advantage have gone on to win, indicating no correlation between weight and success. If anything, it piles a greater sense of expectation and pressure on the heftier crew. In 2003, Cambridge weighed a stone a man more and still lost.

There are records to break

It's not like Cambridge will be in need of extra motivation ahead of the race, but they will be the first team to reach a landmark 80th victory if they win the race this year. Cambridge were the first to win 10, 50, 60, 70 and 75 races and will want to seal the 80th before Oxford get anywhere near to closing down their lead. What's more, cox Dowbiggin will be chasing her own place in the record books by bidding to become the first ever female cox for the Light Blues to win consecutive races.

It's Cambridge's lucky day

It may sound like a strange statistic but the boat race has been held on March 29 on six previous occasions and of those six races, Cambridge have triumphed in five of them.