Other / Jack Houghton / 24 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Jack Houghton has been keeping exalted company recently and - would you believe it?! - they've got some strident opinions on this year's London Marathon odds. Read on for bets on both races...

Women's Race - Sunday 26th April - 9.00am

I was at a dinner party last weekend with Woody Allen, Jean-Paul Sartre and the Dalai Lama. Woody pondered the question: is marathon inexperience any real hindrance to performance over 26.2 miles?

The Dalai Lama didn't have an opinion. He quietly slurped his lobster bisque, looking serene and resplendent in his orangeness. Jean-Paul had an opinion but, as a French speaker, was difficult to understand. His deadness also impeded expression.

I recounted to Woody the tale of Irena Mikitenko - last year's London Marathon winner (tipped on betting.betfair at [17.0]) - who won on the back of just one previous attempt at the distance. I also outlined how, if you believe the work of Tim Noakes, the vast majority of athletes return their peak marathon performances early in their careers. Woody was fascinated.

The Dalai Lama outlined Mikitenko's performances since her victory in London last year: most notably that stunning sub-2.20 victory in Berlin and concluded - the only conclusion that could be concluded - that Mikitenko, at [3.0] on Betfair, was stonking value for a repeat win. "Remplissez vos bottes!" shouted Jean-Paul; which Woody reckoned means "Fill your boots!" Yes indeed.

Mikitenko warmed up with a heavy-legged third place in the Ostia Half Marathon in 71 minutes last month - which won't inspire some - but she didn't taper for that race, and will be sharper come Sunday. And, as Woody pointed out, in a field sans Radcliffe (for Jean-Paul's benefit), and devoid of other notable dangers, it's Mikitenko's for the losing.

Chunxia, Olympic silver medallist, is most likely to win if the real Mikitenko doesn't show up, but her [4.8] is on the short side, and she can't be recommended as a value bet.

Jean-Paul, showing a remarkable knowledge of Eastern European track form, wanted to contemplate Liliya Shobukhova. He pointed out her European Record for 5,000m, and her Philadelphia Half Marathon win last year in 70.21. However, when I pointed out her prohibitive price, around [15.0], he looked nauseous. "Will these layers ever transcend their ego?" we pondered on his behalf.

However, the real talking point of the evening - which dominated the cheese course - is Betfair's decision, as last year, to use 2:15.25 as the benchmark for the New Record market; a time set by Radcliffe in 2003 using male pacemakers. London subsequently decided to stage the race under championship conditions - which does not allow for male pacemakers - making Radcliffe's time impossible to trump. The unattainable benchmark makes a mockery of the market, and yet, remarkably, you can still back "No" at [1.01], when the true price is a million-to-one. At the time of writing, there's £686 available at that price, or a guaranteed £6.86 for the the first reader who can log on to the market and take it. Be quick though, Woody was on the phone to Betfair to open an account as he left.


Men's Race - Sunday 26th April - 9.45am

On the train to Plumpton recently, Marie Curie let me into a little secret: she likes Sammy Wanjiru for the men's race this year. He's currently [3.55] on Betfair, but she's snaffled a big each-way interest with one of the fixed-odds guys, at a massive 7-2. "It's pretty much a bet to nothing, isn't it?" I had to agree: it would be a huge surprise if he finished outside the first three.

Although Martin Lel has looked invincible around London in recent years, a recent MRI scan on his hip - which we are told has shown up nothing of note - is nonetheless worrying. Most of the field will be bringing niggles into the race - that's the reality of marathon training - but something requiring a scan is more than a niggle, and makes Lel hard to recommend with any confidence at such a short price.

So I'm with Marie. Wanjiru's Beijing win was one of the best marathon performances of all time, and Lel will have to be at an absolute peak to compete.

Some are talking up Tsegaye Kebede, but he couldn't handle Wanjiru at the Olympics and it's hard to see him turning that round come Sunday. If there's going to be a story, Tadese is likely to supply it. Although making his marathon debut, he is exceptionally talented - he's one of the few people ever to get the better of Bekele over the country and has already logged a sensational sub-59 minute half. At his current odds of [9.0], he's worth an interest - if only as a saver should Wanjiru not deliver.

But Marie's not one for half-measures. She's balls-deep on Wanjiru and won't hear of any other result. According to her, Wanjiru's so hot at the moment he's radioactive.