Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week Six: Valery the value call

Other / Jack Houghton / 18 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"In the Ayr Gold Cup, my money - £10 to win and £10 to place at Betfair SP – is going on Valery Borzov."

After the demise of Roger Federer sunk his balance, Jack Houghton dusts himself down and dives headlong into the heady world of horseracing handicaps...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

* * *

Never have trusted the Swiss. Unreliable. Not like their watches. I didn't even bother watching the final. It's in the bag for the Fed I thought. Early night I thought. Count my money I thought. The Betting Challenge bank was as good as in profit and I could see the squirming, mutated faces of the editors at betting.betfair, pressed against their kitchen porthole window, as the waiter of justice returned from my table with their dish of ridicule; now served back to them cold.

But oh no, the Fed somehow managed to twice squander a one-set lead and lose to some two-bit Argentine, barely more than a teenager. What a joke. Worst still, the next morning, Radio 4 took the dubious editorial decision to twin the news of Federer's demise with that of Patrick Swayze's - right at the moment I was waking up. I've been miserable ever since.

The thing about winners though is that we know how to pick ourselves up. So enough moping, it's time to find where the next profitable bet is coming from. And rather than meekly retreating into the comfortable confines of a small-field Group race, this week I'm heading head-long into the heady world of horseracing handicaps.

It's a source of amusement to many that, for someone who so readily advertises themselves as a racing betting expert, I've yet to comprehend how anyone can make a profit betting in all-age handicaps, despite years of trying. You see, to my mind, they just don't seem to follow any rules or patterns that I can really decipher. Form has a role it seems, but when listening to those who make money from these races, a world revolving around the less quantifiable seems to take precedence.

No matter. Armed with speed and handicap ratings supplied by a friend who bets on this lotterical nonsense, I march forth to solve the dual-handicap puzzle of Saturday's John Smith's Stakes and Ayr Gold Cup.

Broomielaw looks the outstanding value in the John Smith's Stakes at Newbury at around [9.0] and I'm having £10 on to win at Betfair SP, and £20 to place. According to the ratings I have (that, if I'm honest, I don't fully understand) Broomielaw is a few pounds clear of the field on both the speed and handicap front, and therefore should be the favourite.

He ran a quick time when winning on his first run back after two years' off and, presumably, his price will be held artificially high by those afraid of the mythical "bounce". The same folk will also likely ignore the horse's positive selling points: obvious ability and a progressive profile.

In the Ayr Gold Cup, my money - £10 to win and £10 to place at Betfair SP - is going on Valery Borzov. In main part, this is because the horse is named after the Russian sprinter who introduced the world to plyometrics: the explosive sprint drills so favoured by runners nowadays.

Also, of course, Valery - if I may call you that - looks favourably treated on his win at York back in May, on soft ground. A reproduction of that form on Saturday would make him hard to beat and, at around [23.0], I'm happy that he's the value call.

Much will no doubt be made of the draw on Saturday, with much talk centred on the relative merits and demerits of a low, middle or high berthing. A cursory glance at things tells me that there is no easily discernible pattern to the draw at Ayr over six furlongs and, completely unwilling to do any real work on it (trust me, to analyse draw bias properly requires hours of toil, and the results are usually inconclusive at best, and downright unreliable at worst) I'm happy to trust that Valery's high draw will serve him just fine.

This week's bets:

£10 Back of Broomielaw at Betfair SP in John Smith's Stakes (Win).
£20 Back of Broomielaw at Betfair SP in John Smith's Stakes (Place).
£10 Back of Valery Borsov at Betfair SP in Ayr Gold Cup (Win).
£10 BACK of Valery Borsov at Betfair SP in Ayr Gold Cup (Place).